Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 9/28/18)… Fallen, but could get up.
Must Wednesday’s low still be probed before retesting the prior week’s high? No, but that would have consequences. And its start would have specific characteristics, to know it’s actually underway. Does retesting Wednesday’s low ensure a bottom will form? No, and there are specific characteristics to know. We discuss those setups, and their objectives, along with upcoming influences, during this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FB, TLRY, NBEV, CRM, BAC, IBB, TGODF, CGC, KSHB, ACBFF, IIPR, RAD, S, SQ
transcript
—————– (09/29/2018 09:31) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
David B: Good Morning
Mark: gm
jp: gm
—————– (09/29/2018 09:41) —————–
Bill G: gm
—————– (09/29/2018 09:47) —————–
Mark: Wed & Thu exhibited steady down trending in the final hour due to its entry being lower than the prior window’s close. Do you expect it to re-appear next week if/when a big down move happens?
—————– (09/29/2018 09:49) —————–
Mark: Bias up Mon morning would unlikely to reverse down at 32 but still can?
—————– (09/29/2018 09:54) —————–
Mark: answer to the last Q probably depends on when its target is met
—————– (09/29/2018 09:55) —————–
Bill G: Is the first break from the triangle in either direction likely to be false?
—————– (09/29/2018 09:58) —————–
Bill G: Also unfinished business at 2947.50?
—————– (09/29/2018 10:01) —————–
Mark: right
—————– (09/29/2018 10:03) —————–
Mark: yes
—————– (09/29/2018 10:06) —————–
Bill G: Could happen while testing the 9/21 open
—————– (09/29/2018 10:11) —————–
Mark: Underperformance of financials lately might also be negative telling that the top is near?
—————– (09/29/2018 10:12) —————–
Mark: TLRY and the likes are unlikly to lead the market higher :)
—————– (09/29/2018 10:15) —————–
Mark: yeah
Mark: my point is that localized and short lived
—————– (09/29/2018 10:19) —————–
David B: CRM,BAC
—————– (09/29/2018 10:25) —————–
David B: will we need to see when earnings coming out in the next two weeks and the reactions will tell us if the market has laready discounted or not thse earnings. What i am saying is this the next catalyst for the market to continue to higher highs?
Bill G: IBB Higher tgts or double top more likely?
—————– (09/29/2018 10:36) —————–
Mark: RAD – any hope after two failed merger deals?
—————– (09/29/2018 10:37) —————–
Mark: SQ
—————– (09/29/2018 10:48) —————–
Mark: not S, SQ
—————– (09/29/2018 10:50) —————–
Mark: volume declining on the final rally stretch
—————– (09/29/2018 10:52) —————–
Mark: k
—————– (09/29/2018 10:53) —————–
David B: Thanks
Mark: thx much
Bill G: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2919.75 | 2924.50 |
| …would target | 2926.00 | 2930.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2912.25 | 2917.00 |
| …would target | 2906.25 | 2911.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday morning’s rally missed the opportunity to complete a retest of Wednesday’s 2907.50 low. The overnight attack on it to within 2 ticks also missed the opportunity. None of which is predictive, not without the actual attempt to break lower. Its failure creates a consequence… and that’s what the methodology is all about.
So, this morning’s consequence was an offsetting test of the 2924.50 bias-up signal, for having held a test of the 2916.25 bias-down signal. Done. Its morning test marked the session high. And being a Friday, the balance of the session only ranged choppily sideways as was most likely.
Meanwhile, the close (barely) recovered 2919.00. That’s a different pattern, but the consequence should be to retest the prior Friday’s highs. And there would have been consequences to not recovering it, and/or to closing under 2914.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THE SATURDAY REVIEW.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s breakout from a 5-day multi-session range under 1.1815 down to 1.1725 gapped down sharply to 1.1645 Friday. The presumed second consecutive lower close would confirm the breakout, and require at least an eventual third lower close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight attacking 1184.00 were retraced well into positive territory Friday morning up to 1195.00, which is now the decline’s bounce limit — testing it up to 1198.00. Holding its test as resistance would be optimal for keeping intact the 1172.50 target.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The disparate performance from Gold became more glaring Friday as the open gapped back up to Wednesday’s 14.40 close instead of confirming Thursday’s break under 14.33. Surging through the morning up to 14.75, just a nickel below its objective. .
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up a quarter-point to test 141-00 Friday was reversed down to probe a quarter-point into negative territory, still having potential for extending the corrective bounce up to 141-16 or 142-00 so long as 140-10 now holds as support.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Four days of hovering under Monday’s 72.70 high resolved up Friday to attack 73.75, nearing the 73.90-74.25 target that remains intact so long as 70.80 holds as support.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having greeted Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, and reacting up to new highs fulfilling the 3.10 target, a pullback had room down to 3.00. Having failed to close above 3.10 after testing it, upside momentum became vulnerable and Friday’s open gapped down to test 3.00. Closing any lower would signal the uptrend had ended.