Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping overnight under Friday’s 1.1355 low to 1.1340 was recovered to open flat with Monday’s 1.1360 close. Eventually an intraday dip retested 1.1340. Lower prior highs there held, and should no longer delay resuming the rally if the rally signal remains valid.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already testing Monday’s 1285.00 low overnight, gapping down there plunged another $10 to 1275.50. The pattern qualifies as a breakout that must avoid a second consecutive lower close or else launch a new downleg.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Tuesday within Monday’s range didn’t break prior lows while forming an Inside Day. Closing back above 15.00 would launch a rally leg, probably requiring Gold not to confirm Tuesday’s break.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday resumed the decline that was officially signaled under 147-14 Friday after holding a test of 148-16‘s buy signal last Wednesday. The decline has room down to 145-24 while still being a pullback of the massive inverted Head & Shoulders pattern that recently launched its first upleg.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing the 63.20 pullback limit for a second consecutive session on Tuesday began choppily, eventually bouncing into the afternoon. Optimally, the rally would have resumed already to better ensure reaching the pattern’s 65.00-67.00 target area. But EIA is not being greeted from a position of weakness, so almost any strength Wednesday morning would be credible for extending higher.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing fresh lows again Tuesday has confirmed Monday’s breakout from a multi-session range, now requiring at least an eventual third lower close before any recovery can be credible.
Mid-day Update… Still no reinforcements.
Another gap up being used for distribution.
Unfinished business above remains outstanding at the 2921.25 “new Globex trend extreme,” which requires intraday retest, often the same day. The 2919.25 opening gap above all prior highs wants to be filled, too. Neither is required to be tested within any particular time frame, and a deep reversal down could develop in the interim.
A deep reversal down is trying to develop now. At least, it tried to develop this morning. Post-open action dropped 7 points from testing the 2919.00 bias-up target’s resistance to test the 2913.00 bias-up signal’s support. While 2913.00 defined the window’s lower-end as advertised, it has continued defining the noon hour’s lower-end, too.
Now no-bias has triggered, and the next 45-60 minutes should be range bound. That range includes the afternoon’s 2908.00 bias-down signal, which would fulfill a probe into negative territory. Unfinished business above wouldn’t prevent extending lower, but would inhibit it anyway. Otherwise, back above 2915.50 would start to signal the unfinished business may be in-play, first.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 17, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s econ reports are neither high-profile nor influential to price action. But the afternoon heats up with two Fed speakers and Beige Book data.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
12:30 PM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
12:30 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2912.50 | 2916.75 |
| …would target | 2917.75 | 2922.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2903.75 | 2908.00 |
| …would target | 2896.75 | 2901.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… More post-open dipping.
Post-open buyers are scarce.
The overnight rally up to 2921.25 had ranged sideways for 5-1/2 hours into the open. 
The series of higher highs and higher lows was maintained, so the overnight in its entirety still qualifies as trending. Relentless trending. But its sponsorship was ready to pass the baton.
Fluctuating sideways around the 2919.00 bias-up target through the opening 15 minutes of volatility wasn’t itself predictive. No pattern was formed, other than the inability to extend above the bias-up target. Overnight sponsorship wasn’t attracting intraday reinforcements.
Price began slipping and has tested the 2913.00 bias-up signal down to 2911.50. Its test should define the window’s lower-end, this being a bias-up environment. Probing under it before the window lapses would require its retracement.
Already having been met, the 2919.00 bias-up target won’t become unfinished business if left outstanding. But the 2919.25 opening print and the 2921.25 “new Globex trend extreme” both want to be retested intraday. Back above 2915.50 would start to signal their tests underway.