Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The multi-session range extended to a fifth session as its 1.1815 low was tested Wednesday, and held, surging back into the range up to 1.1875 in reaction to FOMC. Closing under 1.1785 would help to confirm a breakout’s validity. Bounces meanwhile should hold any test of 1.1900 resistance.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Wednesday to the range’s lower-end at its 1291.50 sell signal probed lower intraday under 1197.80. Almost any initial weakness Thursday would be credible for launching a new downleg.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s test of 14.56 didn’t extend higher, and didn’t hold up to suggest 14.80 might also be in-play. But the intraday reversal down to 14.40 doesn’t reverse momentum down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC events were greeted from the morning having gapped up hovered in positive territory. But it was a position of weakness at Tuesday’s close, which is what matters, having hovered above prior lows Tuesday despite probing lower overnight down to 139-17. Blipping-up in reaction to the news still has room up to 141-16 without even beginning to threaten reversing the trend up.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging Wednesday is too late to reject Monday’s surge to fresh highs. The 73.90-74.25 target area remains intact, especially so long as pullbacks hold 70.60 as support.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending down intraday for a change on Wednesday is greeting Thursday’s EIA report with a constructive 9-cent dip to 3.00, and upside potential to at least 3.12 in reaction to Thursday’s report.
Mid-day Update… Eagerly awaiting.
Greeting FOMC events optimistically.
Holding a test of this morning’s 2921.25 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 2926.75 bias-up signal. This was regardless of having attacked 2926.75 to within 1 tick at the open.
2926.75 was tested, and its test defined the window’s upper-end until the bias environment began lapsing. Probing it up to 2929.00 was corrected, and now the noon hour is being exited at 2930.00.
2-3 healthy moves. But so far, only noise within yesterday’s range. As it should be, if not already breaking out much earlier, ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC events. Moves are likely to accelerate and extend, so we’ll be keeping up with them in real-time in the chaRTroom.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 27, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is incredibly busy. And yet only one item is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action. That’s the day’s first, Durable Goods, and it’s released simultaneously with a couple other high-profile reports. Any reaction to them is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports. Among them is a Housing sector report, where data have begun softening.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2925.75 | 2930.50 |
| …would target | 2931.25 | 2936.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2917.50 | 2922.50 |
| …would target | 2912.50 | 2917.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Alley cats in a burlap sack.
Volatility contained, but not constrained.
Second time wasn’t a charm. The overnight rally to 2928.75 was in proximity to gap up above yesterday’s 2928.25 noon hour high. 
Like yesterday’s overnight rally, it would have resumed yesterday afternoon’s late bounce this morning.
And like yesterday’s overnight rally, it fizzled. Also similarly, the open was greeted slightly positive.
Unlike yesterday — not that it matters — today’s setup inserted a bounce before ultimately extending the pre-open reversal to lower lows. That bounce attacked this morning’s 2926.75 bias-up signal to within 1 tick. Its reversal to lower lows touched this morning’s 2921.25 bias-down signal.
So, this is a no-bias environment. And having touched the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the bias-up signal is in-play. Aaand, it’s met. An uninterrupted bounce from 2921.25 just pierced the open’s high by 2 ticks up to 2927.25, neutralizing the upside objective.
Being a no-bias environment, 2926.75‘s test should define the window’s upper-end. It can be probed later, but probably no higher than yesterday’s 2928.00-2930.00 highs. Probing above it during the no-bias environment would require being retraced. Resuming the decline would be attracted back down to oversold RSIs at yesterday’s 2918.25 low, if not further down to “lower prior highs” at 2914.00.