Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s response to the China tariffs was predictable. Perhaps the session was inhibited by anxiousness awaiting a response from China. None of which matters to the pattern, so long as it reactions hold relevant levels through relevant windows.
The week began by gapping down Sunday night. Its 2925.00-2930.00 range broke lower Monday morning to test 2918.00. Two intraday attempts to at least recover the overnight range were able only to test 2926.00. Buyers were unable to gain traction for their effort.
Meanwhile, Monday’s selling did satisfy selling pressure down to 2921.25. And 2919.00 avoided breaking lower through a relevant window. So, sellers didn’t gain traction for their efforts either. Another intraday dip is possible, perhaps to “lower prior highs” at 2914.00, so long as 2919.00 recovers through the window that probes it.
Tuesday morning isn’t any likelier to probe higher or lower. And rallying in the morning all but requires gapping up. And Monday’s range should resolve up to avoid extending the decline substantially.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
opened Monday within the Tu-Fri multi-session range, then surged to fresh highs above 1.1890 to attempt a breakout. But the afternoon was greeted back within the range, and back under 1.1785 would start to seal a top.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s reversal of fortune that went out testing the 1201.50 sell signal was reversed again Monday to attack the 1209.50 buy signal. But the range persisted.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing at or above the 14.33 buy signal Friday persisted through Monday, still fluctuating around 14.33 without either extending or reversing back down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above 140-04 had signaled the decline’s momentum was lapsing, with corrective bounce potential to 141-16, but Monday only ranged back down to and around 140-04.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s gap up on production news extended to fresh highs at 72.40. That was probed Monday morning up to 72.75, with the next higher objective being 73.90-74.20.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The two-day multi-session Thu-Fri range broke higher Monday morning to fresh highs for the recovery up to 3.04. Being a breakout, a second consecutive higher close on Tuesday would entrench the rally by requiring at least an eventual third higher close.
Mid-day Update… They’re still waiting.
Stuck in this morning’s defensive range.
The next lower objective for this morning’s drop was 2921.25, and it was tested as the first hour ended. Its bounce was rejected by a 6-point plunge to test 2918.00 as rumors emerged about a possible DOJ resignation/firing.
Perhaps the first bounce was headed higher if not for the knee-jerk reaction down. That reaction down recovered above 2919.00 to avoid exiting the bias environment with something more substantial in-play. A second bounce got to 2926.00 as the bias environment lapsed.
But price action has only settled in, and settled down, fluctuating between 2919.00-2923.00. This afternoon’s 2921.00 bias-down signal just held to trigger noN-bias. Back above 2924.25 would start to signal a bigger bounce underway, but it’s not required. And waiting for more news or closure makes any trending difficult.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 25, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Home price trends and home construction building activity come back into view as a new round of reports begin Tuesday. Their filter is recent glimpses of possible peaking. Meanwhile, any reaction to the pre-open reports is likely to be duplicated in reaction to a post-open report.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2923.75 | 2928.75 |
| …would target | 2931.00 | 2936.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2916.00 | 2921.00 |
| …would target | 2910.50 | 2915.50 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.