Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s open was a totally different picture from a pre-open attempt to reverse the trend down. Breaking under the 2838.00 earlier Globex low would have been bearish for the morning. But surging back up to the 2945.50 overnight high didn’t prevent probing under 2838.00 anyway.
The difference is that Friday’s selling pressure amounted to 10-11 points off the highs. Applying that much selling pressure to an open under 2838.00 would have damaged the ongoing uptrend. Instead, Thursday afternoon’s 2936.00 last relative low ultimately held as support.
Similarly, all of Friday afternoon trended down from 2944.00 to 2935.00. It is an easily discernible series of lower lows and lower highs, forming an intraday downtrend. A lot of selling pressure was expended, while still failing to gain traction for the effort.
The bullish WedEX by proxy certainly wasn’t influential, so an aggressively bullish Monday morning is not at all reliable. Nonetheless, any immediate strength Monday would be credible retracing and reversing Friday afternoon’s decline. “Unfinished business” at the morning’s 2947.50 bias-up target remains outstanding, too.
Join us at the Saturday Review to discuss paths up and vulnerabilities to extending down anyway…
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
SATURDAY REVIEW BEGINS AT 9:30 AM ET.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s break higher tested its 1.1865 bounce limit overnight, and largely held within Thursday’s 1.1825-1.1855 range intraday Friday. Closing back under 1.1785 would now signal the trend reversing down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s extension above 1209.50 to 1215.80 was absorbed before the open, disqualifying it as early strength which otherwise would have become a new upleg. The effort was undermined by a collapse to 1196.00 that ended the day testing thee 1201.50 sell signal.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight probing above the 14.33 buy signal had extended to 14.46 but its pre-open retraement eventually collapsed to uptrending support at 14.18 before ending back at the 14.33 buy signal.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
All but confirming that closing above 140-04 had ended the decline’s momentum, Friday ranged narrowly sideways, still having room for a bigger corrective bounce before retesting the lows.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping back up Friday probed a slightly higher high up to 71.80 that was retraced back into Thursday’s range to fill the gap down to Thursday’s 70.20 close. Closing positive on the day but within Thursday’s range doesn’t fulfill the outstanding requirement for at least an eventual third higher close.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s surge to 2.99 was consolidated narrowly into the weekend, forming a Flag which is a continuation pattern that usually resolves up to resume the trend.
Mid-day Update… Stuck at the high. Yesterday’s high.
The attraction is holding back today’s highs.
This morning’s 2940.50 bias-up signal triggered cleanly. The attempt to invalidate it failed, while probing back under yesterday’s high, and 2947.50 is now “unfinished business.”
A bounce into the noon hour reached only 2944.00 before reversing back down. And now the afternoon’s 2937.75 bias-down signal is being touched. If bullish WedEX isn’t influening price higher, then it should at least attract this wrong-way trending back up.
Today’s WedEX has not yet done either.
Back above 2941.25 would start to signal another recovery attempt underway. Otherwise, fresh session lows could test yesterday afternoon’s last relative low at 2936.00 just as noise
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Sep 24, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s two Fed surveys are high-profile, but neither has a track record for influencing price action.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2938.75 | 2944.50 |
| …would target | 2946.25 | 2952.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2932.00 | 2937.75 |
| …would target | 2926.75 | 2932.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.