Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 16, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is staggered, but with reports that are neither high-profile nor reliably influential to price action. Nevertheless, any noticeable reaction to a pre-open report would likely be duplicated in reaction to the post-open report. The afternoon’s Fed speaker may hit the tape with comments that enhance volatility.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2904.25 | 2908.50 |
| …would target | 2910.75 | 2915.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2897.50 | 2902.00 |
| …would target | 2890.75 | 2895.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Taking care of business (below).
Invalidated no-bias after post-open drop finally extended deeply enough.
The overnight range held through the open to avoid a false breakout within 60-90 minutes of the open. 
But the overnight range held to greet the open flat, not indicating any trending in either direction.
And then it did. Post-open action was not at all restrained. Volatility immediately increased with a couple of bars during the first 3 minutes that were wider than any overnight bar. Trending down didn’t bounce until attacking the 2906.00 bias-down signal to within 1 tick. Which held in time to trigger no-bias.
And then it didn’t. Breaking under 2906.00 through 10:3 invalidate the timely bias signal. This is a no-bias environment. Probing under 2906.00 does not require being retraced for having originated during a no-bias environment. And the 2899.00 bias-down signal doesn’t require being tested.
Meanwhile, a 5-stage pattern has developed that’s likely to test 2904.50 as resistance (being tested now). Its resolution would be predictive through the afternoon bias environment. Either higher to retest the 2912.25 open and higher, or back down to test “lower prior highs” at or under 2898.00.
Suddenly trending from the overnight ranging can extend. But probing the 2900.50 low while RSIs diverge positively would enable a bounce to neutralize Friday’s 2910.00 gap up.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Flat and narrow.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Surging from 2895.00 after Europe’s opens had extended well above the long-awaited likely test of 2902.00, probing its room for noise up to 2911.00 by 1 point. The post-open surge attacking 2915.00 held up high enough for long enough to suggest that any reversal would be relatively shallow and temporary. In fact, its reaction down did hold a 38.2% retracement of the open’s gap, natural support. Being a Friday and failing a reversal attempt during the morning’s bias environment, the window’s exit firmed. Reversing back up through the afternoon’s bias environment was resisted by 2911.00 until the very last-minute blipped-up to 2913.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped-up, too, attacking 2914.00. But that was only the high of a sideways range that has persisted through midnight and Europe’s opens. The range’s lower-end has held multiple touches and pierces of 2910.00 as support. And now 2914.00 is being retested.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s new trend high close, being a Friday, all but requires at least an eventual higher close. Not necessarily immediately today. Initially probing higher would still be vulnerable to a corrective dip, whether intraday or multi-session. More so, only having ranged sideways overnight, initially probing higher OR lower would be likely to reverse back into the overnight range. Meanwhile, the quarterly earnings onslaught continues.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2915.00 would be likely to trigger the 2914.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2908.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/13/19) …No man is an island. Was Friday?
Friday’s gap up from a multi-session flat-to-higher range was a breakout. Closing (almost) at the opening print suggests Friday’s trending was no different than the multi-session range preceding it. What does that mean for the rally, how might it resolve, and what are the signs of each setup? This week’s Saturday Review addresses those questions, and many great questions posed by attendees.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
WFC, JPM, BAC, GS, MS, NFLX, CSX, MMM, T, IBM UTX, SYMC, BIIB, PEP, TEAM, LVS, ISRG, HON
transcript
—————– (04/13/2019 09:31) —————–
Adam 2: hi
—————– (04/13/2019 09:33) —————–
jp: gm
ljr: gm
David B: Good Morning
Adam 2: gm
Rod David 2: Welcome to Saturday Review, please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
Bill G 2: gm
ljr: wondering if there is a globex gap that needs tested from below
Mark G: gm
—————– (04/13/2019 09:48) —————–
ljr: seems like lots of people think this can’t keep going and things are frothy… also seems timely for all these new ipos at a potential top
—————– (04/13/2019 09:52) —————–
Bill G 2: Fri open still needs to be tested from below?
—————– (04/13/2019 09:58) —————–
Mark G: are we in a sequence of 10 up days with 1 or 2 counter-trends and early next week might be a resolution?
ljr: we’re so close to all time highs… seems like we “should” at least touch them
—————– (04/13/2019 10:03) —————–
ljr: i guess it turned out to fridays open
ljr: the globex gap
—————– (04/13/2019 10:04) —————–
David B: when a top starts to form is usually the dow outperforms.?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:06) —————–
Mark G: looks more like a range even though pointed higher
David B: earnings have been lowered so much it seems like companies beating will continue this market higher?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:10) —————–
Mark G: can 2928 qualify as proxy for 2941?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:17) —————–
Bill G 2: In regards to David’s question on tops: several years ago Jason at Sentimentrader did a study to test the order of major major indexes reaching tops and found no consistency to which index hit top first.
—————– (04/13/2019 10:20) —————–
ljr: any changes to expiry/wedex this week?
ljr: stocks: NFLX,CSX,IBM, UTX (earnings tues)
ljr: stocks: PEP, TEAM, LVS (earning wed)
ljr: stocks: ISRG, HON (earn thurs)
ljr: i have to go, but will watch rest of recording later
ljr: thc
ljr: thx
Mark G: Nxt being a short week would you expect a down turn to happen early enough like by Tue afternoon if it intends to happennext week?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:24) —————–
David B: this week with the market closed on friday and options expiration does the wedex play out on thursday afternoon and monday morning?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:30) —————–
David B: MMM,T
—————– (04/13/2019 10:39) —————–
David B: MMM has not reallly participated in the market rally is that a concern?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:41) —————–
David B: same concern
David B: T
David B: SYMC,BIIB
—————– (04/13/2019 11:04) —————–
Bill G 2: Thanks
David B: Thanks