Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… A different kind of range?
Gap down holds support, recovers resistance.
The open was greeted at this morning’s 2871.00 bias-down target. The first several minutes collapsed 4 points to attack 2867.00, 
which was retraced entirely several minutes later.
Recovering continued up to and through this morning’s 2877.00 bias-down signal. Rejecting tests of both bias-down parameters through 10:15 has now put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters — 2884.50 and 2890.75. It’s the third consecutive opening rejection of both bias parameters, which is very very.
Rejecting both bias parameters, again, reflects the widely disparate opinions and their sponsorship’s willingness to defend them. Another detour wouldn’t be surprising. Not even this morning when probing back under the 2877.00 bias-down signal during the no-bias window would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced.
A deeper pullback would target 2871.7-2873.00. Back above 2881.00 would signal the rally is resuming into positive territory. Calling a short-squeeze may be premature, but the pattern would be vulnerable to it.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Tariff news.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Rosh Hashanah holiday worship had its usual impact on market volume Monday, inhibiting both trending and volatility. An overnight bounce touched 2886.75, neutralizing its attraction above. A post-open blip-up to 2888.25 held the retest, as well as both bias-up parameters. Offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters was put into play at 2871.00 and 2864.75. Reversing down through the noon hour got to only 2876.50, before ranging sideways around 2777.00-2780.00 through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Firming steadily recovered up to 2885.00 by midnight. Hovering there into Europe’s opens gradually weakened, and then slipped to 2780.50. A 45-minute Flag collapsed 10 points to attack 2871.00 before 1-minute RSI finally diverged positively. A bounce up to 2876.00 is still consolidating.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
No traction was gained yesterday, so trending beyond its range this morning all but requires gapping open, which is currently indicated. Recovering to open within yesterday’s range that tries trending beyond it would be likely to fail. Meanwhile, having neutralized the 2871.00 “unfinished business” put into play yesterday morning — it’s also this morning’s bias-down target — opening under yesterday’s range would be likely also to test 2864.75 today, and be vulnerable to new pullback lows targeting 2857.00. Upside attractions at 2892.25 and 2895.50 can’t be considered until at least rallying back into yesterday’s range.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2879.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2877.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2875.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2884.00 | 2884.50 |
| …would target | 2890.25 | 2890.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2876.25 | 2877.00 |
| …would target | 2870.25 | 2871.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
What a difference a day makes. In this case, that day is Rosh Hashanah. Like almost every year, the slower volume inhibits both trending and volatility. Monday was no exception.
Signals that are triggered on low volume are less reliable, especially as time extends. Rejecting the morning’s test of both bias-up parameters put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. Both 2871.00 and 2864.75 become “unfinished business” below. Price action in their proximity will be likely to test them, but they’re attractions won’t make an interim buy signal any less credible.
Meanwhile, slower volume doesn’t prevent neutralizing unfinished business above. Rejecting both of Friday morning’s bias-down parameters had put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. That included 2886.75, which was tested overnight and Monday morning to define the range’s upper-end.
Other attractions above that remain outstanding include 2892.25 and 2895.50. They’re recovery alone wouldn’t yet signal reversing up from the pullback off of last week’s high. And the pullback still has potential for extending down to 2857.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initial weakness Sunday night didn’t extend Monday, as the session ranged narrowly sideways, still likely to resolve down to lower objectives.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow, choppy ranging Monday doesn’t confirm or undermine the pattern, which remains likely to resolve lower targets beginning at 1272,50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s very narrow ranging would normally suggest the first trending attempt will reverse back into the range. But beginning explosively, either up or down, would be much likelier to trend in that direction.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging Monday consolidated Friday’s collapse to fresh lows. It also avoided confirming Friday’s breakout that would otherwise require at least one more lower close. But the decline’s momentum otherwise remains intact for at least an intraday probe lower.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night bounced to test the 68.40 buy signal, but its resistance sent price back down into Thu-Fri’s range at 67.33. A second test of the buy signal would be much more reliable for extending higher intraday.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A fresh low at 2.75 Monday morning snapped up slightly to 2.81, which is too shallow to signal momentum reversing up. But a second consecutive higher close on Tuesday would suggest at least that a bottom is forming.