Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday morning’s weakness gets a benefit of the doubt that it was fulfilling the bearish WedEX. The indicator’s influence tends to be more obvious after being at all influential Friday afternoon. 
But continually struggling with negative territory, until the bias environment begins lapsing. is the only qualification necessary.
Isolating another probe under Thursday’s 2800.00-2802.00 lows to its own timing window meanwhile preserves Friday’s Isolation setup. It’s somewhat diluted by the extra chipping away at support, leaving less of it to defend against another downleg. And another downleg becomes likelier the longer that another upleg hasn’t yet exploited the isolated sellers.
The market often finds a way to satisfy competing interests, and Monday’s tactic was the morning’s no-bias signal. Holding a test (several times) of the 2798.00 bias-down signal and putting into play an offsetting test of the 2806.50 bias-up signal, the market left itself a trail of crumbs to find its way back up.
A similar tactic is the afternoon’s narrowly-triggered bias-up signal above 2805.75. Leaving its 2812.50 bias-up target outstanding as “unfinished business above” can help to resume the rally Tuesday. One wrinkle, though — narrow afternoon ranging between 2807.50-2809.50 broke higher post-close in reaction to GOOG’s earnings, already touching 2812.50. Not immediately finding reinforcements at Tuesday’s open would likely produce a morning of backing-and-filling.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially firming Sunday night to fresh recovery highs at 1.1800 was retraced before Monday’s open to gap down slightly and extend down to 1.1740 support. Momentum did not reverse down, keeping alive the attraction back up to 1.1850 so long as 1.1725 holds as support.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s initial strength to test 1235.00 was retraced into Monday’s open as the morning dipped to attack 1222.00. Closing back above 1230.00 would be more reliable for launching an upleg.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trying to probe higher Sunday night was retraced back toward Thursday night’s lows Monday morning, maintaining higher highs and higher lows that keep alive potential for launching a rally leg.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s drop to the 144-08 target held through Sunday night but then gave way to the next lower objective at 143-02 down to 142-28. The bounce limit is now 143-12 to maintain the decline’s momentum.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s strength up to 69.30 was on-track to extend Thursday’s recovery above 68.80, despite Friday not having confirmed. But Monday was more in sync with Friday, as intraday action reacted back down into negative territory testing the low pattern’s 67.60 as support. Closing above 68.80 would still be credible for launching at least a corrective bounce targeting 71.70.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday and Friday’s testing 2.78 resistance had threatened to violate the downside momentum, but Sunday night’s gap down and Monday’s testing of 2.71 continue to point lower.
Mid-day Update… Ballast dropped.
Expiration distribution should be done.
Somehow, the market often finds a way to honor even its most contradictory commitments. The morning’s bearish WedEX influence kept the recovery from overnight lows from gaining traction back into positive territory. 
And the WedEX’s influencing lapsed as the bias environment exit rallied through overnight highs to 2808.75, isolating another timing window’s probe under Thursday’s lows.
The bullish Isolation seems to have been recharged with another failed attempt to break lower. The reward for having absorbed more sellers is still the recovery of last week’s 2818.00 highs. Not relentlessly, but with only temporary corrections that keep intact the ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows off this morning’s 2796.00 low.
Meanwhile, this morning’s 2806.50 bias objective is neutralized, and a very late bias-up has triggered to put into play a new objective at 2812.50. Back under 2803.75 would start to signal another detour underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue July 24, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s post-open PMI is the session’s only econ report with a track record for influencing price action. Others may be high-profile. The pre-open Housing sector report could be influential, following last week’s surprising slowdown in new home starts.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2805.25 | 2805.75 |
| …would target | 2812.00 | 2812.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2797.75 | 2798.50 |
| …would target | 2790.50 | 2791.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.