Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 26, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is busy, but only one post-open item has a reliable track record for influencing price action. It’s likely to duplicate any noticeable reaction to either of the two pre-open reports. Two afternoon Fed speakers could spur volatility, too.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
1:00 PM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
1:45 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2723.25 | 2725.25 |
| …would target | 2729.00 | 2731.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2708.00 | 2710.25 |
| …would target | 2699.25 | 2701.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Delayed effect.
Thursday’s break resumes after Friday’s detour.
The pre-open bounce from 2739.25 reached 2747.75, greeting the open at 2744.50. A blip-up touched the 2746.25 bias-down target and reversed down hard. 
How hard? A sell signal triggered under 2744.00 that extended through the opening 15 minutes of volatility down to 2734.50.
Even then, the next lower objective was 2732.00. It was probed down to 2730.50 5 minutes later. Its brief reaction soon collapsed to attack the next lower objective at 2721.00-2722.00 down to 2720.00.
Persistently oversold 3-minute RSI was very convincing to expect the drop to extend. Still oversold, a series of higher lows added credibility to a bounce limit violation, and to a buy signal above 2725.00. Now the buy signal’s 2730.50 target has been met — and probed up to 2732.00.
RSIs just stopped improving into the bounce back to resistance. Still, Nothing requires resuming the decline soon, but any violated pullback limit could be the trigger.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… It’s baaaack.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s relentless trending into Friday’s gap up to 2767.00 was the basis for a session-long rally setup that only needed to be maintained, if not also extended. It was barely maintained, and was not extended. Reacting down to 2757.00 was fully recovered to 2767.00, where Friday Factors inhibited volatility through the balance of the session. At least, until I left the screen early. My final comments warned of greater risk down to 2758.00-2759.00 than up to a fresh high, but also the difficulty to producing either before the close. That didn’t prevent a late drop to attack 2755.00. Its break was too late to form a hold-short, but its reaction entered the weekend at 2759.00 — that was the potential drop’s target, and not recovering it opened the door to extending down. Ultimately holding 2756.00, but not recovering 2767.00, changed nothing about buyers still not regaining control. However, it did require sellers to prove without much delay that they’re still in control.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s late drop probed lower immediately Sunday night. Probing under 2755.00 soon collapsed to test 2743.00, Consolidating back to 2749.00 gradually started breaking lower to eventually attack 2739.00. Its reaction has bounced up to 2746.00.
If, then…
Tuesday night’s action had warned volatility would be expanding sharply. Which it did, all the way through Thursday’s close. Last night’s relentless trending and productivity of that trending suggests the volatility has resumed. Separately, Thursday’s close had warned that lower lows were underway. Friday’s gap up had all but rejected that, but didn’t exploit it. Not, yet. Meanwhile, last night has trended relentlessly. Thursday night’s relentless rally didn’t extend Friday, but last night’s relentless trending has the benefit of greeting maximum liquidity instead of minimum. That said, not trending down through the open could undermine the pattern.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2747.75 would be unlikely to exceed the 2746.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2750.50 would be likely to trigger the 2753.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2756.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2760.50 | 2763.50 |
| …would target | 2766.50 | 2769.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2749.75 | 2753.00 |
| …would target | 2743.00 | 2746.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.