Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Still anybody’s game.
Morning dip holds support.
noN-bias triggered this morning while a surge overlapped its 2751.00 bias-up signal. RSIs diverged negatively, and the surge reversed down as quickly, and more substantially. The morning’s bias environment low was 2739.00.
Exiting the bias environment under the lower-end of 2743.00-2747.00 would have been bearish. It was certainly probed, but not decisively when the bias environment had finished lapsing. And RSIs diverging positively at the low’s retest have bounced through the noon hour.
If you’re keeping track of the score, it’s Bulls 0, Bears 0. Actually, considering that each side made an effort, the score is more like Bulls <-1>, Bears <-1>.
Bouncing through the noon hour managed to touch this afternoon’s 2747.75 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period. Again. It held, triggering no-bias. Hovering there into the bias environment lapsing would be vulnerable — if not also likely — to launch an upleg into the close. And almost any afternoon upleg from here would likely be aggressive and substantial.
Otherwise, back under 2743.75 would start to signal momentum reversing down. And exiting the bias environment back under the 2743.00-2747.00 range could trend down through the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 6, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Wednesday’s reports is either high-profile or has a track record of influencing price action. The EIA report could indirectly, by triggering a reaction in Crude Oil.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2748.00 | 2747.75 |
| …would target | 2753.50 | 2753.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2739.25 | 2739.00 |
| …would target | 2733.25 | 2733.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Tripping up.
Finally extending, only to hold resistance.
Fresh highs attacking 2752.00 were retraced to attack 2744.00, and to greet the open at 2747.00. 
Flat-to-higher narrow ranging eventually eked out a surge up to 2752.50. More fresh highs, and an opportunity to trigger the 2751.00 bias-up signal.
Too little, too late? Well, too late, at least. The bias-up signal was still being overlapped at both 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. No bias objective requires a test, and no bias parameter is required to hold.
The setup could have extended higher anyway, which it tried. But already having backed-and-filled, we knew any more backing-and-filling was probably actually a reversal. Which it was.
Now the 2743.00-2747.00 range is being tested as support down to 2746.00. The range may yet hold, and launch an afternoon upleg — which we’d expect to be aggressive and substantial. Otherwise, extending back down under 2743.00 through a relevant timing window like the bias environment’s exit would next target 2736.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Making an effort.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s open teased at launching another gap-and-run session. The open did gap up 8 points to 2742.00, and almost immediately extended another 8 points to 2749.25. That post-open surge was retraced almost immediately, too, but the gap up was maintained. Its extension never really repeated, nor was it rejected, containing all price action for the balance of the session. The 2743.00-2747.00 target area was thoroughly tested, and its range defined the session’s mid-range. Its upper-end defined the close — fulfilling buying pressure, without gaining traction or rejecting it.
Overnight action’s new info…
The 2743.00-2747.00 not only persisted initially overnight, and was also influential, pushing price back down from its upper-end to its lower-end. the lower-end was tested down to 2742.00 before midnight, then touched again at Europe’s opens. Quickly recovering back up to 2747.00 worked higher its way higher to attack 2752.00. A reaction down is now testing yesterday’s 2749.25 high as support.
If, then…
Yesterday was the first close above a 2-week trading range. Last week began with the first close under the same 2-week trading range. It was recovered back into the range instead of producing a second consecutive lower close. The pattern is slightly different now — especially having closed within 2743.00-2747.00 resistance instead of beyond it — but no second consecutive higher close today would still not be bullish for the rally effort. Yesterday’s highs are only being overlapped overnight, but that’s still an effort. So, dipping back to the overnight lows can’t be relied upon to recover. Holding at or above yesterday’s lows would keep the door open to extending higher.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2753.25 would be likely to trigger exceed the 2751.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2747.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.