Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2747.25 | 2747.00 |
| …would target | 2753.25 | 2753.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2736.50 | 2736.50 |
| …would target | 2729.00 | 2729.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Standing its ground, not all of its gain.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Market Wrap will be held early, I’m away from the screens today during the final hour.
Gapping up to 2742.00 ran to 2749.25. Which was retraced entirely back down to 2742.00 during the first hour. The 2741.00 bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Its renewed 2747.00 bias-up target was met already, and isn’t required to be retested.
Maintaining a break back under 2741.00 as the bias environment lapses would signal momentum reversing down. Breaking back under a lower support would be relevant later — like, exiting the noon hour in negative territory under 2733.50.
Meanwhile, this being a bias-up environment, reacting down has room to its 2735.50 bias-up signal as support without signaling anything more substantial underway. And back above 2744.50 would start to suggest no pullback is coming, that instead the rally is about to resume.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Highest hopes.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s bias signal persisted through the noon hour, as it often does on Fridays. The week’s third gap-and-run participated as the open’s 16-point gap up extended another 16 points higher into the afternoon bias timing window. The bias environment ranged flat-to-lower into the final hour, which retraced half of the intraday gain. But only temporarily, bouncing into the close. All intraday upside objectives were fulfilled, and the afternoon bias environment was exited weakly, but sellers failed to exploit the vulnerabilities.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s Globex open gapped down and extended to attack Friday’s late pullback low down to 2729.00. The dip was soon recovered back into positive territory above 2735.00 and through Friday’s 2737.00 high to attack 2740.00. Consolidating back down to Friday’s highs into AND out of Europe’s opens seemed apprehensive, but eventually surged to 2746.75.
If, then…
As we discussed during the weekend’s Saturday Review, fresh highs were likely if not immediately rejecting Friday’s gains. Fresh highs would target 2743.00 or 2747.00, and would be vulnerable to reversing down. Coming to within 1 tick of the upper-target fulfills it, but its rejection must exit the open at least back under 2743.00, if not also back under Friday’s highs or close. Friday afternoon’s break lower had potential for extending to 2723.50-2724.25, which would be the likely objective if last night’s rally is rejected. Renewing the morning’s bias-up or simply holding it could evolve into another gap-and-run session, essentially triggering the bullish scenario described Saturday.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2743.00 would be likely to trigger the 2741.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2737.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2735.50 bias-up signal.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/2/18) …Warning shot, or False break?
The holiday-shortened week was greeted by significant selling. But there was no follow-through, only an immediate retracement. The week ended by attacking the prior week’s highs, seemingly on the verge of rejecting the earlier drop. But isn’t this where that last drop originated? We discuss the new price action’s effect on the likely paths back down, and the potential for extending the rally.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AMD, PANW, GE, FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, TSLA, UA, ARNA, GWPH, IIPR
transcript
—————– (06/02/2018 07:20) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
—————– (06/02/2018 09:33) —————–
Bill G: gm
David B: Good Morning
jp: gm
Mark: gm
—————– (06/02/2018 09:43) —————–
Mark: do u think a probe higher with rejection would be more bearish if done intraday than overnight due to higher volume and a different crowd?
—————– (06/02/2018 09:46) —————–
ljr ipad: fresh high or new all time high?
—————– (06/02/2018 09:53) —————–
Mark: if NQ shows speculative behavior why the resumption of the decline in ES is likelier – is that because a short term outperformance?
—————– (06/02/2018 09:56) —————–
Bill G: Would an impusive rally directly to 2800ish be more likely to fail then a gradual, stairstep rally?
Bill G: impulsive
—————– (06/02/2018 10:00) —————–
David B: are ES lows back in feb for now off the table and a new pattern would need to develope to put these back on the table?
—————– (06/02/2018 10:08) —————–
Bill G: Starting from the early Apr low, the mkt appears to be in an uptrend that needs a failure?
Bill G: lower low
Bill G: to relative
—————– (06/02/2018 10:15) —————–
David B: AMD
—————– (06/02/2018 10:17) —————–
ljr ipad: PANW
ljr ipad: earnings this week
—————– (06/02/2018 10:21) —————–
David B: GE Have we seen a near term bottom . what would be a close below a concern of test of those lows and possibly lower?
Bill G: It seems like the mkt is being led by the FANG stocks and will need to roll over before a top can be expected?
—————– (06/02/2018 10:23) —————–
David B: UA – Same as GE
—————– (06/02/2018 10:50) —————–
Bill G: Thanks
David B: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!