Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2735.50 | 2735.00 |
| …would target | 2741.50 | 2741.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2724.50 | 2724.25 |
| …would target | 2718.25 | 2718.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Gapped and Ran.
Substantial follow-through already produced.
Multiple (2) similar setups of gapping open and trending substantially intraday had made at least a third similar occurrence likely. Friday’s open gapped up to 2721.50, touched its 2720.75 bias-up target, 
and then extended sharply higher to 2729.00. The 2727.25 renewed bias-up target was overlapped at 10:15 to avoid renewing again.
That didn’t prevent fulfilling the next higher objective. It just needed a little assist. Reacting down from 2729.00 targeted at least 2721.50, which a quick collapse quickly fulfilled. It was retraced entirely just as quickly, and then extended to 2733.50. The next higher objective was defined as anything above 2733.00.
That was quick. Too quick. The collapse never consolidated before reversing back up. No accumulation or complexity before recovering the prior upleg’s violated pullback limit. Those setups tend to hold the prior high’s setup. Indeed, the reaction down from 2733.50 got to 2725.00.
Any deeper would likely test 2720.75. Being a bias-up environment, there’s room down to its 2714.25 bias-up signal. Maybe in a knee-jerk reaction to a headline, but otherwise I don’t expect its test this morning. Meanwhile, back above 2730.50 would at least target a fresh high before sellers try to retake control again.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Optimistic approach.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s 2719.00 open was greeted by a very recent breakout from what had been a contained overnight range. Its The 2727.00 origin was likely to be retraced, despite extending down to the morning’s 2707.00 low. Its recovery peaked at the morning’s 2722.50 bias environment high, which was a 61.8% retracement of the pre-open breakout’s segment. And it was enough for another drop to the afternoon’s 2699.75 the afternoon’s low. Bouncing from there was still overlapping the morning’s low into the close — neither rejecting its break nor extending it.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sentiment shows no signs of pessimism as this morning’s Employment Situation report approaches. Thursday morning’s 2707.00 low held a couple of tests as support until finally surging to 2718.50 into of Europe’s opens (no defensive posturing). A quick 5-point dip recovered to probe a fresh high by 1 point, but only momentarily as price action since then has only fluctuated narrowly around the 2718.50 prior high.
If, then…
Closing back under the morning’s low decisively Thursday would have triggered a signal, that the corrective bounce from Tuesday afternoon had peaked, resuming Tuesday’s break under the prior two-week range. Still overlapping the morning’s low at least keeps the burden of proof on buyers. Buyers already failed to produce a second consecutive higher close Thursday above 2711.00 and 2715.00, and now a second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm the trend reversing down. Nevertheless, initial strength Friday would be credible for extending higher intraday. Otherwise, oversold RSIs at Thursday’s low weren’t retested overnight, and their attraction would be a minimum objective if gapping up is avoided or quickly falters.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary levels are not contemplated ahead of an Employment Situation report.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2715.00 | 2714.25 |
| …would target | 2121.50 | 2120.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2702.00 | 2701.50 |
| …would target | 2696.00 | 2695.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s open didn’t gap and run like the prior two sessions (making it likelier Friday). It’s open did gap — not as the resolution to or the product of overnight trending, but as a late pre-open breakout. Such setups tend to be retraced back to their origin, and a relevant portion of Thursday’s was retraced, albeit not entirely before resolving down.
Closing back under the morning’s low decisively would have indicated the corrective bounce from Tuesday afternoon is resolving down. Thursday’s close was still overlapping the morning’s low, so we’re not sure the trend is yet reversing down. But the burden of proof was on buyers after probing the morning’s low, and overlapping it doesn’t equate to recovering it.
Regardless of gapping open or not, initial strength Friday would be credible for extending higher intraday. That would mean Thursday was backing-and-filing, and potentially refueling buyers. Oversold RSIs at Thursday’s low may make that difficult unless neutralized already by a temporary overnight dip.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.