Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu May 31, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy. But only the post-open report is reliably influential to price action. There is another Housing sector report following it, which is another opportunity to deviate from the five Housing sector reports that have been released recently. Note that Chicago PMI is released privately to its institutional subscribers, and their reaction tends to be repeated when released publicly several minutes later.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2721.50 | 2720.75 |
| …would target | 2728.00 | 2727.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2712.50 | 2712.00 |
| …would target | 2706.00 | 2705.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Levitation act.
Holding at resistance, not rejecting it.
Yesterday’s post-open highs held tests of the 2708.00 area as resistance. It was the morning’s calculable bias-down target. 
Last night’s rally held the 2708.00 area as resistance, too. And its reaction down to 2698.75 was recovered to test the 2708.00 area.
Repeatedly. Eventually, a higher high became at least obligatory. The objective already measured out to 2711.00. And now that is being fulfilled by an 8-point surge up to 2715.00.
Recall that the rally from yesterday’s lows has room up to 2715.00 while still being considered a corrective bounce. The 3-minute RSI has finally touched overbought territory but not very compellingly. Back under 2711.00 would start to signal the corrective bounce is done so momentum can start reversing down.
Extending higher anyway would still leave “unfinished business below” at the gap down to yesterday’s 2688.50-2692.00 close. But another run at last week’s highs above 2733.00 would be possible, first.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Back to square two.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Last week had ended with a bearish opening setup whose influence tends to persist for several days, including Tuesday. Italy’s political instability also greeted the end of a 3-day holiday weekend, triggering an overnight slide that probed the lowest levels in over 2 weeks sown to 2690.00. Bouncing through the open briefly attacked 2710.00 and held “higher prior lows” before plunging to attack 2676.00. Its late-afternoon retest held, and recovered back to the afternoon’s 2691.50 high — more than 15 points off the lows but still down nearly 30 points from Friday’s close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Several swings between 2693.50 and 2685.50 contained price action before rallying into Europe’s opens. And out. No defensive posturing there, and so far no apparent need for it as the rally has extended relentlessly since then. Yesterday’s opening range is being probed up to 2707.75.
If, then…
Is the near-term bearish influence of Friday’s open done? Regardless, it is about to leave “unfinished business below” at the gap back down to yesterday’s 2688.50-2692.00 close. This is an attraction below, and not selling pressure. A trigger is still needed to resume the decline. Until then, more “higher prior lows” up to 2715.00 from the two-week range above can be tested and still contain the corrective bounce from yesterday’s lows.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2701.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2700.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2698.00 would be likely only to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2694.75 | 2693.50 |
| …would target | 2701.25 | 2700.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2686.75 | 2685.75 |
| …would target | 2680.25 | 2679.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.