Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bounce had touched “higher prior lows” so that Wednesday’s 1.1731 opening gap could be retested and its attraction below neutralized. Its attraction below was more powerful than that, and Friday opened at fresh lows down to 1.1692, testing 1.1663. The possible bottoming pattern never completed, and the nearest buy signal is now back above 1.1750.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up to the 1298.50 buy signal Thursday extended higher to qualify as a breakout, despite leaving plenty of unfinished business below at the week-long channel. It still has potential to extend higher and test 1316.00-1317.50, despite Friday not confirming Thursday’s breakout. Otherwise, closing back under 1298.50 would signal the breakout was false and already reversing down.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up back above Tuesday’s 16.55 low Thursday and extending to test Tuesday’s 16.70 high would have signaled the trend detouring up, but Friday needed to close higher for confirmation. Instead, a blip-up was reversed back down to test 16.55 through the afternoon. Almost any initial weakness coming out of the weekend would at least be vulnerable to resuming the decline, if not likely.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Reacting down intraday from Thursday’s test of the original 143-07 sell signal had held above its 142-20 pullback limit, which was pierced by 1 tick overnight before resuming the rally. Friday’s gap up to 143-12 extended intraday to attack 143-30. Now 142-20 is a sell signal if broken through the close.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pullback from Tuesday’s 72.90 high was optimal when Wednesday’s low held 71.00 above Friday’s pullback low. Thursday’s gap down under both could have been recovered if done immediately and maintained, but its immediate recovery attempt was retraced into the close. Thursday’s session has proved to be a paradigm shift, made clearer by Friday’s gap down to 68.75 and extension to 67.50. There’s still room for noise at 67.35, but back above 68.90 would start to trigger an upleg targeting 70.40 if not also the rally’s 74.20 target.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s fresh high was retraced to spend the afternoon fluctuating around Thursday’s close, leaving outstanding the confirmed breakout’s eventual third higher close minimum requirement.
Mid-day Update… Early to rise, early to bed.
Early upside momentum fails.
Holding a test of this morning’s 2721.50 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 2730.75 bias-up signal. There was really only one attempt, and got to only 2727.00. The objective becomes “unfinished business above.”
Now the Friday afternoon crowd is in charge.
The morning’s consolidating was supported by its 2721.50 bias-down signal until the bias environment had fully lapsed at noon. And then the landscape changed. A drop to the afternoon’s 2718.00 bias-down signal held through the 1:20 bias timing window, invoking the grace period. The 1:30 bar was still overlapping it to trigger noN-bias. The same bar was also probing under the morning’s 2717.50 lows.
noN-bias doesn’t require testing the 2712.00 bias-down target, but it can. I’m treating it that way unless the bias environment is exited back above its 2718.00 bias-down signal. An attempt to trend down already failed this morning, which often defines a defensible low, so any recovery could be substantial.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 28, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The U.S. celebrates Memorial Day with a 3-day holiday weekend. Markets are closed, but Globex trades through the noon hour.
Globex open
Sun 6:00 PM ET
Globex close
1:15 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2726.50 | 2725.25 |
| …would target | 2732.00 | 2730.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2719.00 | 2718.00 |
| …would target | 2713.00 | 2712.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Another bite later?
Pre-open slide crowds out post-open sellers.
Having probed yesterday’s highs overnight, opening under the earlier overnight low often signals the trend reversing down. 
Last night’s probe above 2730.50 reacted down under what had been the 2726.75 Globex low.
Then it extended much deeper to 2716.25. And that was down from the 2737.75 overnight high. That’s a lot of selling pressure to expend, inhibiting post-open reinforcements. And its European sponsorship would begin focusing on the impending weekend.
An opening surge did reverse down sharply from its 2722.50-2723.25 resistance as expected. Stopping optimistically short of touching pre-open lows was nevertheless exploited by a bounce that has avoided triggering the 2721.50 bias-down signal. Now an offsetting test of the 2730.75 bias-up signal is in-play.
Now a dip is testing the 2721.50 bias-down signal as support. Back above 2723.00 (being tested now) would start to signal the recovery has resumed. Fulfilling the upside objective early enough would allow another downdraft into the weekend. Back under 2720.00 could leave “unfinished business above” in favor of resuming the pre-open decline.