Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2734.25 | 2734.00 |
| …would target | 2740.75 | 2740.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2722.50 | 2722.50 |
| …would target | 2714.50 | 2714.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stretching the premise.
Bearish WedEX might only define a pullback.
The WedEX setup’s influence should begin no later than 9:15. Which means sentiment until then can trend in the opposite direction. 
Which this morning’s open did.
The intraday crowd often duplicates any extreme overnight action, even if only momentarily. So, the post-open surge was not surprising. Surging 8 points from the 2729.00 open probed a buy signal above 2730.75, tested its likely 2434.75 target, piercing both it and the overnight high.
Peaking by halfway through the opening 15 minutes would have been optimal. Peaking at 9:45 is acceptable, if not also confirmed by then reacting down 6 points to attack 2731.00. Pretty productive. Until it wasn’t.
All of the elements for a bearish WedEX were intact through the open. A fresh high that is not only retesting the 2737.00 9:45 sentiment peak would invalidate the setup. And right now, the 2737.00 9:45 sentiment peak is being retested up to 2738.75.
If it’s any more than just a retest, then the setup can be as bullish as it would have been bearish. Back under 2734.75 would otherwise signal a steep, deep reversal down underway.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Sentiment extremely positive, WedEX extremely bearish.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s 7-point rally had reversed down 14 points overnight to 2727.00. Friday’s expiration session started off choppily in negative territory, and soon extended the overnight dip by another 4 points to 2709.00. That was only temporary as the balance of the session ranged between the 2712.00 pre-open low, and unchanged at 2720.00. This otherwise sideways range was also defined by lower highs, and ended at its lower-end, barely fulfilling the afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence.
Overnight action’s new info…
The new week begins with a relief rally. Or, more precisely, a relief gap up. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin had commented about backing off of the trade war with China, and Giuliani speculated about soon ending the Mueller probe of Trump. Sunday night’s open gapped up sharply and extended to a 21-point gain from Friday’s close to touch 2736.25. Price quickly settled back down to range narrowly at 2730.00. The calm was interrupted by sliding for an hour to greet Europe’s opens at 2724.00. The defensive posturing has been retraced back up to 2730.00, but no higher.
If, then…
Having complied in at least a minimal sense with the bearish WedEX Friday afternoon, a more obvious post-open bearish influence is likely Monday morning. This is regardless of the opening print, which is indicated to gap up. The overnight high isn’t a “new Globex trend extreme” that would require intraday retest. Except for the opening 15 minutes of volatility’s potential for volatility, the balance of the morning should trend down. WedEX’s influence is limited to the morning. Assuming the bearish influence succeeds, then the afternoon could recover entirely — similar setups have done exactly that. But the current Dow outperformance and underperforming NDX make further downside likelier into the close. That’s a lot of bearish influence. So, avoiding a bearish influence altogether this morning should prove very bullish instead.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2725.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2719.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2730.75 would be likely to exceed the bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
Tonight’s Globex Link
Our chaRTroom link has changed, its new link is below. Meanwhile, the Dow has gapped up 235 points to retest last week’s highs. S&Ps quickly got 21 points above Friday’s close to attack last week’s highs. Bearish WedEX doesn’t apply overnight, and this seems to be a knee-jerk reaction to a political headline, i.e. all but required to retrace. A fun session shaping up… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2719.25 | 2719.00 |
| …would target | 2727.50 | 2727.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2711.00 | 2711.00 |
| …would target | 2701.25 | 2701.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.