Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
[PLEASE NOTE THE NEW LINK…] Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2734.25 | 2733.00 |
| …would target | 2740.50 | 2739.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2722.50 | 2721.25 |
| …would target | 2716.25 | 2715.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s gap up and probe of fresh highs was rejected. Not immediately, and not without actually trending up to fulfill the morning’s 2730.00 bias-up target up to 2732.50. But the afternoon bias environment dipped 2-4 points into negative territory and contained the session low at 2716.75.
Fulfilling the bias-up target before being fully retraced means that much more buying pressure was satisfied first, and that no “unfinished business above” was left outstanding. So, the question is whether only briefly probing negative territory is an appropriate consequence. If not, then reacting down further is likely — whether aggressively, or simply backing-and-filling.
And that’s assuming the rally intends to extend. Dipping further could be the beginning of the trend reversing down. Avoiding any dip to immediately extend higher could be another version of Friday morning’s temporary rally, but with a more permanent reversal down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
I’LL SEND LINKS IN THE MORNING TO THE 9:30 ET SATURDAY REVIEW.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already firming into Friday’s open held its gains to test Thursday’s 1.1975 high. That’s the beginning of resistance up to 1.2025 whose recovery would signal a bounce underway, if not also the trend reversing up (i.e. bottom).
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Friday to 1326.00 was $2-3 short of the corrective bounce potential. But reversing down intraday back under Thursday’s highs filled the gap back down to natural support at Thursday’s close. The reversal also helped to avoid a second consecutive higher close that otherwise could have prolonged the rally.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh recovery highs tested the 16.80 corrective bounce target Friday morning, probing it and then reversing back under it. Holding its resistance would help to maintain the corrective bounce pattern, but reversing down immediately wouldn’t be necessary.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying overnight touched the 143-19 buy signal Friday morning, and held it. Reversing back down tested the 143-07 sell signal, and fluctuated around it. Having tested both, their support and resistance should be weakened sufficiently to break durably in either direction.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Another narrowly ranging session at the highs helps to entrench the uptrend still targeting 74.10. But another narrowly ranging session without yet extending the rally does start making a temporary corrective dip likelier. There’s room down to 70.25 before suggesting anything deeper underway.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ranging narrowly and essentially flat on Friday didn’t reject Thursday’s rally back to the 2.82 corrective bounce’s high. But neither was Thursday’s rally confirmed, so no higher close is required. That said, another fresh high close at this stage of the pattern would still be more bullish than bearish.
Mid-day Update… Buyers balk.
Morning rally officially rejected.
A fresh high above the 2730.00 bias-up target’s initial test held its 2732.25 resistance. Reversing down from there through the bias environment exit tested 2724.00. 
Fresh session lows during the noon hour at 2719.25 were recovered up to 2724.50 before entering the bias environment.
Rallying today is still unlikely, so the most bullish scenario may be flat-to-higher.
Flat-to-higher may also be the likely scenario, bullish or bearish. Trending into negative territory after maintaining positive territory is difficult enough. More so after fresh session lows already recovered one probe. More so after triggering no-bias. And more so being a Friday afternoon, which is difficult to attract new sponsorship.
Probing fresh lows during the no-bias environment would still be credible for down to 2716.00-2718.00, but require being retraced. Flat-to-higher up to 2728.50 or 2730.50 would be likelier if still not probing negative territory when the bias environment is lapsing.