Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Late lift holds up.
Gap up maintained above yesterday’s high.
Buyers didn’t gain traction for their effort yesterday. So, another rally day required reinforcements (actually, new sponsorship). That would be indicated by gapping up above yesterday’s high. Overnight action teased at it, then retraced.
And then recovered again.
A pullback from 2702.00 back into yesterday’s range found support at 2696.75. That is natural support at yesterday’s close, and also the next higher objective above 2684.25. Reacting up 10 points tested 2707.00 before the open, and extended higher to 2709.00 post-open.
The gap up was maintained through the open, creating a position of strength.
Not that the position of strength has been productive. It doesn’t preclude weakness. In fact, the 2704.00 open is being tested as support. But weakness from a position of strength is likely to recover, if not also to resume the prevailing uptrend.
A pullback has room down to 2700.50 before even suggesting momentum may be reversing down. Meanwhile, back above 2707.25 (being tested now) is likely to resume the rally. The 2710.25 bias-up target is in-play, and potentially also 2721.50.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Firm to flat, but mostly flat.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s retest of Monday’s highs up to 2684.25 was retraced down to 2677.00 into Wednesday’s open. That wasn’t deep enough to resume the rally. Also, the open had slipped back under Monday’s prior highs, isolating the overnight gains and their upside momentum. So, the incredibly noisy wide morning bias environment eventually dipped deeper to 2672.00. That worked, snapping back up through the afternoon bias environment to 2700.00. The balance of the session ranged around it back down to 2691.00. The rally gained no traction for its effort.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday afternoon’s ranging persisted until finally probing fresh highs before midnight. Hovering up to 2702.50 wasn’t moved by Europe’s opens, soon dipping to 2698.00. Its reaction has been retraced lower to 2696.50, unchanged from yesterday’s close.
If, then…
Having gained no traction for its effort Wednesday, a durable trend Thursday morning must begin by gapping open. Trending attempts aren’t otherwise required. But a trending attempt without gapping open is still possible, but shouldn’t get very far before reversing back through unchanged. Meanwhile, having probed yesterday’s highs overnight, opening back under the 2692.75 overnight low would be vulnerable to retracing yesterday’s rally. Holding an opening test of 2692.75 would instead launch a new rally leg.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2693.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2690.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2695.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2701.00 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2703.25 | 2701.00 |
| …would target | 2712.50 | 2710.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2692.50 | 2690.25 |
| …would target | 2684.25 | 2682.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
A retest of Monday’s highs up to 2684.25 was never off the table. Not even after Tuesday’s session of chipping away at support around 2660.00. Those dips had recovered to reflect accumulation, but never recovered high enough to signal that accumulation was getting any more aggressive.
Already rallying overnight and fulfilling potential to 2684.25 could have been overly-optimistic and reversed back down intraday Wednesday. But the morning’s wide directionless chop resolved that problem. Its dip was recovered, this time high enough to signal that the rally was resuming.
Wednesday morning’s chop resolved substantially, as was expected from its measurements and frequency. It fulfilled the next higher objective at 2696.75 upon entering the afternoon bias environment. And that was the close, after the balance of the session ranged around it between 2691.00-2700.00.
The rally gained no traction by exiting the bias environment in the noon hour’s range and entering the final hour in the bias environment range. A durable trend Thursday morning must begin by gapping open. Trending without gapping open would be vulnerable to reversing back through unchanged.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday night’s fresh trend low was only slightly lower, and it wasn’t repeated intraday. But only Tuesday’s highs were attacked Wednesday, without recovering to signal momentum reversing up. Regardless, a more credible bottom would first recover an intraday test of Tuesday night’s 1.1855 low.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still fluctuating Wednesday is not necessarily bullish while continuing to hold the 1316.00 bounce limit. But the ongoing fluctuation is also further delaying a resolution down, for which there’s no bullish reason to further delay.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh recovery highs were probed Wednesday but not maintained, keeping alive the recent bounce as being only a temporary correction, still likely to resolve down and resume the decline.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Attempting to trigger the 143-07 sell signal on Friday had required there be little or no delay. Lower lows and lower highs since then kept alive its ongoing test, but Wednesday’s gap down under those tests now all but requires extending down. Any recovery would start to make a new upleg likelier.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s intraday test of 68.25 that recovered above the 68.65 buy signal was immediately productive overnight, probing fresh highs up to 71.35 Wednesday.The 74.10 objective remains in-play, within pullbacks now needing to hold 69.50 as support.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up slightly and ranging sideways Wednesday is still another version of the recent directionless sessions that are not individually undermining the continuing likelihood to resolve down. Collectively, not exploiting the opportunity on a timely basis can become bullish again.