Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2674.50 | 2672.00 |
| …would target | 2679.50 | 2677.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2664.25 | 2662.00 |
| …would target | 2657.50 | 2655.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Watered down.
Holding negative territory, but not exploiting it much either way.
The 2666.00 open blipped-up to test 2668.00, stopping pessimistically short of filling the gap back up to yesterday’s close. Gradually sliding to 2659.50 stopped optimistically short of touching the 2658.50 overnight low. The next half-hour ranged choppily between 2661.00-2665.00.
It’s not so much indecision, as it is working out the loose ends. Which they never did, not really.
Still overlapping the 2663.00 bias-down signal at 10:15 AND 10:30 triggered noN-bias. The bias-down target isn’t in-play, and the bias-down signal need not define the window’s lower-end. In fact, a surge to fresh session highs just filled the gap at yesterday’s 2670.00 close to within 1 tick.
Having tested the bias-down signal, triggering it would have all but ensured extending yesterday afternoon’s slide. Not triggering bias-down after testing it would have all but ensured retracing the slide. Triggering noN-bias only enables a probe above the 2672.00 overnight highs, but doesn’t ensure retracing the slide.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Obligatory break.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Already rallying overnight up to the 2674.00 objective created a new requirement for extending the rally, or else it would fail. The requirement was fulfilled by exiting the open above 2674.00 to prevent trapping shorts. Renewing the bias-up signal a half-hour later helped, too. But the next higher target at 2684.25 was only attacked, and only eventually, as the underlying strength’s influence mostly applied to recovering dips. The afternoon’s probe to fresh highs only stretched the rubber band up to 2681.50, and then snapped it back down to 2662.50. Oversold RSIs and the gap back down to Friday’s futures close provided obligatory support that reacted up to its 2672.00 objective.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s drop has resolved down, but not immediately. Monday’s late bounce up to its 2672.00 was initially retraced to test 2665.00 through the Globex open. Two more attacks on 2672.00 reacted down to higher lows, forming an Ascending Triangle. Blipping up at Europe’s opens only stretched the rubber band, which snapped back down through the Triangle’s uptrending support. The sentiment shift developed into a 2-hour slide that has probed yesterday’s low to twice test 2659.00–2660.00.
If, then…
Having originated at Thursday’s lows, did the latest recovery attempt peak yesterday at 2681.00 instead of 2684.25? That’s likely, but it doesn’t prevent retesting yesterday’s highs today. Not even the overnight probe under yesterday’s late low prevents retesting yesterday’s highs today. Entering a timing window even just attacking Friday’s late dip to 2657.00 would likely prevent retesting yesterday’s highs… for a long time. After spending almost all of Monday in hover mode, there’s no reason to further delay its afternoon slide. So, no reason to further delay the slide, and indicated to open near a pivotal point — if these two such bearish conditions can’t produce a bearish open or bearish morning, then a retest of yesterday’s high could still develop.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2659.00 would be likely to trigger the 2663.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2668.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2677.25 | 2675.50 |
| …would target | 2683.75 | 2682.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2664.50 | 2663.00 |
| …would target | 2657.50 | 2656.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
With room for noise above 2674.00 up to 2684.25, the only question Monday’s open need answer was whether 2674.00 was being recovered. 
Testing it overnight had all but required recovering it through the open to avoid reversing down. The open did recover it up to 2679.25, and the bias timing window held on to renew the bias-up signal.
Reactions down were absorbed by higher and higher lows. But the open’s high wasn’t probed until the afternoon bias environment started lapsing. And it was probed by a sudden surge. Inflection at a window’s exit carries extra degrees of reliability if confirmed, and extra degrees of consequence if rejected.
Monday afternoon’s late inflection was rejected. Its consequence was fresh session lows. All prior lows were probed within 45 minutes. The reversal extended down to 2662.50, taking RSIs oversold and filling the gap back down to Friday’s futures close. The obligatory reaction eventually firmed up to 2672.00 through the close.
Even if we knew with 100% certainty that the trend were now reversing down, that wouldn’t prevent first retesting Monday’s high up to 2684.25. Anything more substantial would need a new setup to form, and to trigger.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.