Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… An optimistic start.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
A weak reaction to Friday morning’s Employment Situation report was likely to be false. So, gradually dipping under the overnight range’s 2623.50 lows down to 2612.25 held its test of the 2620.00 bias-down signal before rallying back up through the open. And through the bias timing window, and into the noon hour. The morning’s rally was no-bias trending that would have required being retraced, except its sponsorship exited the bias environment above its bias-up target. The rally extend through the noon hour to trigger bias-up, exceeding the afternoon’s bias-up target to exit the bias environment at 2669.25. Its reaction down to 2657.00 bounced 6 points into the close, overlapping Wednesday’s 2658.50 high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked up slightly to attack Friday’s high, and soon surged to probe it up to attack 2673.00. Flat to higher ranging since then has held this morning’s 2668.00 bias-up signal tests as support. Attacks on this morning’s 2674.00 bias-up target are now being exceeded by a surge attacking 2676.00.
If, then…
Only overlapping Wednesday’s 2658.50 high at Friday’s close meant that extending to 2674.00 and 2684.25 was not necessarily in-play. Gapping up today could have qualified as a signal by proxy. Thta was until 2674.00 was neutralized to within 1 tick overnight. Now, the extension can be signaled by recovering 2674.00 through the open. A pullback through the open could still be absorbed, and ranging through the morning could resolve up. But touching 2674.00 must exit that window above it, or else risk attracting strong-handed sellers. Dipping back into negative territory wouldn’t be easily tolerated, nor would any price action that suggests Wednesday’s 2658.50 high is holding as resistance.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2664.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2668.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2670.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2677.00 would suggest the 2674.00 bias-up target will be exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2684.25.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 5/5/18) …Up?
Thursday morning’s plunge had potential to launch the next major downleg. Then it was recovered. Entirely, that day. Friday extended the recovery, quite a bit, only to end at significant resistance. So, is an even bigger recovery underway, further delaying the next major downleg? Or, is the delay pretty much done?
This weekend’s Saturday Review specifies price action that would identify either resolution, and disqualify the other… You might also be interested in the 11-minute discussion of the “2-Point Strategy” that some subscribers use, either instead of or in addition to stalking larger intraday moves (starting at the recording’s 26:00 minute mark).
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
CRM, UA, IAC, WIX, MTCH, ROKU, DIS, BKNG, SQ, NVDA
transcript
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review… Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
Mark Glezer: gm
—————– (05/05/2018 09:31) —————–
Bill G: gm
David B: Good Morning
jp: gm
—————– (05/05/2018 09:53) —————–
ljr ipad: after stocks, can we quickly look at entry/exit strategies. I heard you mention a 2pt exit strategy on your signals earlier in the week (in and out quick) may be useful for me as I can’t be around the market all day. (Mainly first 90 min)
—————– (05/05/2018 10:02) —————–
David B: CRM,UA
—————– (05/05/2018 10:03) —————–
ljr ipad: couple pets from the 3 min high?
ljr ipad: points
—————– (05/05/2018 10:08) —————–
ljr ipad: very helpful
—————– (05/05/2018 10:11) —————–
ljr ipad: IAC, WIX
—————– (05/05/2018 10:12) —————–
ljr ipad: MTCH (earnings)
—————– (05/05/2018 10:14) —————–
ljr ipad: ROKU, DIS, BKNG
ljr ipad: (all earnings related)
—————– (05/05/2018 10:30) —————–
Mark Glezer: SQ about 4-5 months back we discussed 73 potential target. Is it no longer contemplated based on its performance? Just missed on earnings
—————– (05/05/2018 10:42) —————–
ljr ipad: last one: NVDA earnings thurs
—————– (05/05/2018 10:45) —————–
ljr ipad: thx for today. looking forward to new site content. also, can we have the embedded links in the blog posts colour changed back to blue. black doesn’t identify a link well.
—————– (05/05/2018 10:46) —————–
ljr ipad: thx
Mark Glezer: thx much
Bill G: thx
ljr ipad: bye
David B: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2670.50 | 2668.00 |
| …would target | 2676.50 | 2674.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2657.75 | 2655.50 |
| …would target | 2650.25 | 2648.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
This morning’s 2620.00 bias-down signal was tested down to 2612.25, and recovered in time to avoid triggering. That put into play an offsetting test of its 2638.25 bias-up signal. And it was tested before the first hour ended, when exceeding it would have renewed the bias-up. But it was still being overlapped.
The rally extended anyway.
If tested during the no-bias environment, the untriggered 2638.25 bias-up signal would be required to define the window’s upper-end, or else trending above it is required to be retraced. Both constraints could be invalidated if the rally’s sponsorship were to prove itself worthy — by exiting the bias environment above its 2646.00 bias-up target.
It was.
And having rejected the no-bias and its required retracement, the rally has only extended. The open’s shallow muted reaction to the Employment Situation report leveraged Thursday afternoon’s pent-up pressure to extend sharply higher. The afternoon’s 2655.00 bias-up signal triggered and its 2662.00 bias-up target was ultimately probed up to 2669.50.
The session ended by retracing the bias environment down to 2657.00, but no prior low was attacked. The session closed by overlapping Wednesday’s 2658.50 high, and not by closing above it, so extending to 2674.00 and 2684.25 is not necessarily in-play..
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
WE’LL APPLY THIS AND MORE TO THE BIGGER PICTURE AT THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW. ITS LINK WILL BE EMAILED IN THE MORNING.