Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2674.50 | 2673.00 |
| …would target | 2682.50 | 2681.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2662.75 | 2661.50 |
| …would target | 2654.50 | 2653.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Threading the needle.
Triggering then un-triggering bias-up.
Pullin
g back into the open from 2682.25 to 2674.50 was sufficient to correct the earlier overnight gains. We know that because the open surged, extending to attack 2682.00.
Interestingly, the price action seemed to be ignoring or at least compartmentalizing an ominous announcement from Israel regarding Iran. Apparently, that became impossible when crude oil had popped too much.
Eventually, price had reversed down to 2671.75. I’m assuming it’s a reaction to non-market news which is likely to be recovered. But that’s in contradiction to the 2678.25 bias-up signal failing to trigger, putting into play an offsetting test of its 2662.25 bias-down signal.
A reaction up to 2679.00 is trying to rally, anyway. Which it can, even with the objective outstanding below. Exiting the bias environment above its 2684.25 bias-up target would invalidate that objective below, but it can become “unfinished business.”
Back above 2679.00 would put higher highs back into play. Otherwise, another dip under 2673.00 would reinforce the 2662.25 objective, or something substantially lower this morning on the along that path.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… IMPORTANT PROGRAMMING NOTE.
SITE REDESIGN: You may might notice some minor aesthetic changes when logging in today. There’s a little more serious stuff happening on the back-end which shouldn’t effect you. Regardless, please contact me ASAP if you encounter any difficulty accessing any part of the site the way that you want to access it. Thank you!
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s open was greeted by sideways ranging that never probed Thursday’s test of 2677.00 resistance, but also not rejecting it. Post-open action didn’t probe higher either, never stretching the rubber band. So, a drop to 2658.00 lacked the momentum of a rubber band snapping back. The drop was retraced almost as quickly. The balance of the session copied the overnight pattern and ranged sideways, never probing 2677.00 resistance, but also not rejecting it.
Overnight action’s new info…
A delayed open seemed to have a lot of pent-up buying pressure. Spiking up 9-10 points from Friday’s 2669.00-2671.50 close was retraced quickly. Then it was recovered gradually. And extended, for awhile. Attacking 2681.00 was later improved to 2682.25, and its reaction down is attacking the 2677.50 interim low.
If, then…
Without rejecting the ongoing test of 2677.00 on a timely basis, fresh highs became more possible. Now they’re being tested, above 2681.00 and not quite attacking 2684.25. Fresh highs are still vulnerable to reversing down, albeit a little less so, and probably not if maintained much past noon. Extending higher would target 2693.00 and 2703.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2681.00 would be likely to trigger the 2678.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2674.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
New Globex Link
We have a new link to the chaRTroom. Tonight’s Globex session begins in 10 minutes. Watch it live by clicking below… See you there!
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/28/18) …Delayed reaction.
This week was interesting. Price action defines it as dipping sharply and recovering it all, while testing and holding a corrective bounce limit. Surrounding the action was the usual headlines, which has come to include a constantly falling Dollar, and also the first week of the quarterly earnings onslaught, which Barron’s says 80% of reporting companies beat estimates.
There was also a degree of anticipation for the coming week. Exemptions on some trade tariffs is expiring, the FOMC meets after last week’s ECB and BOJ meetings, ending in Friday’s Employment Situation report. And week-two of the quarterly earnings onslaught.
Where will price and price action be when greeted by the FOMC and payrolls catalysts? Will the corrective bounce limit hold, or extend? What are the price behaviors and levels that will be predictive of either? We address these topics and more in this weekend’s Saturday Review…
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
TSM, NVDA, QCOM, INTC, AMD, AMZN, SHOP, MCD, SQ, BABA, FEYE, TSLA, CMG, WDC, OLED, GE
transcript
—————– (04/28/2018 09:32) —————–
Rod David: -=-=-=-
David B: Good Morning
Bill G: gm
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review
—————– (04/28/2018 09:59) —————–
David B: AMZN,AMD
ljr ipad: SHOP, MCD
—————– (04/28/2018 10:01) —————–
ljr ipad: SQ, BABA
—————– (04/28/2018 10:02) —————–
ljr ipad: FEYE, TSLA(pos of weakness or strength)
ljr ipad: no position no in any.thx
—————– (04/28/2018 10:05) —————–
ljr ipad: I’ll watch recording. thx
—————– (04/28/2018 10:15) —————–
David B: CMG,WDC
—————– (04/28/2018 10:36) —————–
ljr ipad: one more plz; OLED
—————– (04/28/2018 10:42) —————–
ljr ipad: earnings this week
ljr ipad: short?
—————– (04/28/2018 10:44) —————–
ljr ipad: thx for all.
—————– (04/28/2018 10:47) —————–
David B: Thanks
Bill G: thx