Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Getting a little too big for itself.
Looming events may inhibit further trending.
Recovering all of the post-open 22-point plunge was impressive. Especially the segment that exceeded this morning’s 2624.25 bias-down signal during a no-bias environment. The minimum objective for retracing the open was 2634.75, and it was touched.
That also retested the filled gap at yesterday’s close, and neither test was required. But exiting the bias environment above them would have allowed retracing the segment above 2624.25 to come from a position of strength. Perhaps that’s why actually retracing 2624.25 probed it down to 2619.75.
All of which has been recovered. Another fresh post-open high is piercing 2636.00 — the upper-end of the objective for retracing the open. Also like this morning’s test of the objective’s lower-end, it’s being done by “no-bias trending,” above the 2631.75 bias-up signal but too late to trigger.
Retracing this afternoon’s bias-up signal is required. Eventually. Meanwhile, fresh highs might attack 2638.00. Being no-bias trending that requires being retraced is already difficult to extend. There’s also post-close earnings looming from Facebook. The no-bias environment could dip back down to its 2621.75 bias-down signal just as noise.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 26, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Like Tuesday, Thursday’s econ calendar is busy but has only one reliably influential report. That’s after the ECB policy statement and Draghi Q&A. And all of the high-profile reports are pre-open, but several report simultaneously, all but ensuring the market’s open is greeted with volatility.
FB earnings
Wednesday post-close
*ECB policy statement / Draghi Q&A
7:45 AM / 8:30 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2633.25 | 2631.75 |
| …would target | 2639.25 | 2637.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2623.25 | 2621.75 |
| …would target | 2616.00 | 2614.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Quick plunge steadily recovers.
Yesterday’s low hold a retest.
We discussed a bullish setup during the Tour. So long as yesterday’s 2616.00 lows either avoided or absorbed a test through the open, its reaction up would have filled the gap back up to yesterday’s 2633.00-2635.00 close. 
But that bounce had played out already to open at 2632.00-2634.00. The bullish setup was inverted.
Inverted, and rejected. The opening 15 minutes of volatility plunged 22 points to 2611.25. Yesterday’s lows were broken. But the break’s low printed at 9:45, and never printed lower. That’s an opportunity for a low, an alternative method to absorb a test. A very choppy recovery bounced 11 points to 2622.25 by 10:15.
Bias-down triggered, but wasn’t renewed. The bounce has extended another 12 points anyway to attack 2635.00. This is a bias-down rally, and requires being retraced at least to its 2624.25 bias-down signal. Often, the 2718.00 10:15 print will be retraced, too.
Retracing the bias-down rally would prevent recovering the filled gap. And that would keep alive the downtrend. Otherwise, entering the noon hour above 2633.00-2635.00 would suggest a bigger bounce underway.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… No takers.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s 2681.00 gap up was under the 2688.50 overnight highs that had probed above prior highs. The rejection kept alive a string of “ineffectual optimism” that had defined price action since Friday afternoon’s 2659.75 low. That was largely retraced during Tuesday morning’s drop, but the afternoon plunged to 2616.00 during the bias environment. The low filled a two-week old gap that held, leaving a choppy afternoon that closed at 2634.00-2635.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday afternoon’s bounce initially firmed to attack 2640.00. That lack of upside commitment was eventually exploited by a single one-hour drop to 2626.00 well before midnight. Europe’s opens triggered a surge to 2637.00, which was retraced as quickly as it had developed. Retraced and reversed to fresh overnight lows. A dip attacking 2618.00 is now trying to recover 2624.00.
If, then…
The gap filled by Tuesday’s low had formed by stopping optimistically short of fully bottoming before launching a rally — the rally that has now been fully retraced. Tuesday’s bounce stopped short of recovering “higher prior lows” that would have signaled the gap held. And overnight action hasn’t extended Tuesday’s bounce. So, regardless of yesterday afternoon’s bounce having stalled the decline, Wednesday is being greeted by the ongoing test of a tenuous gap. Potential for another corrective bounce this morning probably diminishes greatly if not already underway coming out of the open, targeting the gap back up to Tuesday’s close. Trying to resume the decline would find more dominoes ready to fall.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2621.25 would be likely to trigger the 2624.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2634.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.