Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s open gapped down under Friday’s 1.2300 low and trended down throughout to fresh lows at 1.2256. Bounces should hold 1.2290-1.2300 to maintain the decline’s momentum.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Monday to 1329.00 extended down slightly further intraday to test 1324.00. That’s the lower-end of April’s range, and anything lower would put back into play 1310.00 and potentially also 1294.00. Bounc es meanwhile have room up to 1340.00 before suggesting the trend has reversed up.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s probe under Friday’s 17.05 pre-open low extended to 16.90, which was extended further intraday to test 16.60. Immediately recovering 16.90 Tuesday would be crediblle for at least filling the gap back up to Friday’s close around 17.20, but the near-term trend otherwise points to 16.40.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Monday to fresh lows probed lower intraday to 142-09 and held under Thu-Fri’s bearish falling wedge pattern.. The trend remains down so long as 143-20 isn’t recovered
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s gap down reversed up arbitrarily to fill the gap back up to Friday’s close around 68.35. Holding the gap keeps alive potential for a more substantial reaction down. Otherwise, a higher close on Tuesday would target a retest of the 69.50 target.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s significant sell-off still wasn’t rejected Tuesday, but further delayed resolving down for yet another test of 2.75 resistance.
Mid-day Update… Choppy, trendless, unchanged.
Another relevant window returns to Friday’s close.
The bearish WedEX influence on this morning’s price action was not successful. Post-open probes into negative territory only tested the overnight lows down to 2667.50. The morning’s no-bias setup wasn’t successful either. An offsetting test of its 2665.50 bias-down signal became “unfinished business below.”
Attempts to actually reject the bearish WedEX also were not successful. Rallying to almost 2683.00 into the bias environment exit was no-bias trending. It has been retraced to the morning’s 2675.50 bias-up signal, and also to the 2670.50 10:15 print.
WedEX is no longer relevant. And returning yet again to unchanged around 2773.00 makes trending at all difficult. By the same token, intraday volatility hasn’t offset the earlier ineffectual optimism that makes probing lower this afternoon likely — so long as 2676.25 holds as resistance.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 24, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is busy, yet has only one reliably influential econ report while quarterly earnings continue. But there are both simultaneous pre-open and post-open reports, which can be a catalyst for price action. And three of those reports are housing sector data, so contradictions or confirmation of outliers can trigger volatility. Also, any noticeable reaction to pre-open reports is often duplicated by post-open reports.
GOOGL earnings
Monday post-close
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2682.00 | 2681.75 |
| …would target | 2688.50 | 2688.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2671.50 | 2671.50 |
| …would target | 2664.50 | 2664.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stuck in neutral.
Bearish WedEX preventing rally, at least.
Rallying into the open had recovered back into positive territory. But the 2667.00 open ticked down relentlessly throughout the entire opening 15 minutes of volatility to test 2668.00. That also tested the overnight lows, which were likely to extend down more substantially before recovering. Still are.
Meanwhile, a couple of bounces have extended to test 2676.00, but the 2675.50 bias-up signal didn’t trigger. This is a no-bias environment. And having held a test of the bias-up signal, an offsetting test of the 2665.50 bias-down signal is in-play.
Like the overnight dip, post-open dips are stopping optimistically short of their potential. Or, as is now the case, short of their objective. Being a no-bias environment, this morning is unlikely to trend down. But the 2665.50 bias-down signal can break lower as the no-bias environment starts lapsing.
So long as sellers remain in control this morning and don’t allow a recovery above the 2675.50 bias-up signal, the balance of the morning is likely to remain under pressure. And although the bearish WedEX influence ends with the bias environment, trending down further remains possible — if not likely.