Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Apr 23, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s first post-open econ report isn’t high-profile, but it does have somewhat of a track record for influencing price action. Regardless, it would be likely to duplicate any obvious reaction to the pre-open report, although that’s not an influential Fed survey.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2682.50 | 2682.00 |
| …would target | 2689.00 | 2688.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2671.50 | 2671.25 |
| …would target | 2663.50 | 2663.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Still fallen.
Pre-open rally is retraced.
Trending down into and out of Europe’s opens had tested 2683.00. It was recovered before the open to fresh overnight highs testing 2698.00. That’s positive territory, 
and it could have launched a morning rally… if maintained.
It wasn’t. And it didn’t.
Already dipping to fluctuate around unchanged, the open was essentially flat with yesterday’s 2692.00-2693.00 close. The open trended straight down from there. The overnight low has been retested to within 2 ticks of the earlier 2683.00 test.
The 2688.00 bias-down signal triggered along the way, targeting 2681.75. There’s no assurance of it being met within first detouring into a corrective bounce — there’s no assurance of it being met, at all, only a likelihood. Back above 2691.00 would start to signal a much bigger detour up underway. A bounce is now testing 2688.00 as resistance, too late to invalidate that it triggered.
Meanwhile, trending through the open on expiration often establishes the session’s trend. And Friday morning’s bias often extends through the noon hour. Then comes the bearish WedEx’s afternoon influence. None of which require the slope to be any steeper, but any of which suggests that bounces will fail.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Fallen, and trying to get up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday began with a clean slate, having neutralized two pieces of “unfinished business below” overnight and pre-open at 2703.75 and 2702.25. A lot of selling pressure had been expended during Globex just to get there. Holding those levels as support through the open would have established a floor for the day. But the gap down extended, setting the opposite tone for the day, and reinforcing the bearish WedEX. Trending down throughout the day to 2681.50 neutralized attractions below, like “lower prior highs” and filling the gap back to Monday’s close. Another opportunity to establish a floor, but even a 12-point spike up to 2699.00 was barely maintained through the close, reacting down to 2691.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex’s initial objective was to retrace most of the 12-point spike up not already retraced intraday. And bouncing off of 2688.00 was mostly recovered back to the spike’s high. But another drop into and out of Europe’s opens retraced most of yesterday afternoon’s recovery back down to 2683.00. Its reaction has gradually worked its way higher, now testing 2696.00.
If, then…
Friday morning isn’t required to bounce, and yesterday’s headline reaction hasn’t brought in new sponsorship. Rallying this morning without gapping up would be doomed to failure, although rallying at all would still be challenged by the afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence. Maintaining a gap down under yesterday’s low would form a “session-long decline” setup, which can be magnified by expiration’s influence.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2685.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2688.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2692.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2700.00 | 2699.50 |
| …would target | 2707.25 | 2707.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2688.25 | 2688.00 |
| …would target | 2682.25 | 2681.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.