Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2720.25 | 2723.00 |
| …would target | 2727.50 | 2730.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2709.75 | 2713.00 |
| …would target | 2704.75 | 2707.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday morning’s 2719.00 bias-down signal had held its test as support, with the help of invoking the grace period. No-bias triggered late, but compensated for the delay and surged to 2734.00 as the morning bias environment lapsed. 
Probing above its 2725.25 bias-up signal was no-bias trending and required being retraced.
The narrow noon hour’s range resolved down into the afternoon bias environment. Coming to within 3 ticks of 2725.25 qualified for neutralizing its attraction. Just in time for price to begin firming through a 2730.75 buy signal ahead of FOMC.
A knee-jerk reaction up to 2744.00 was reversed down almost as quickly to 2724.25. That’s 12 points up and 20 points down within 5 minutes or less. As expected, the recent ranging was only storing energy for an extremely volatile reaction.
There’s more? A lot more.
Also as expected, the new Fed chair’s first Q&A relived the volatility of his predecessor’s early days. A 30-point drop was underway into his appearance, and ended within 1 tick of the morning’s 2712.25 bias-down target. Its natural support and oversold RSIs produced a 21-point bounce, and still had time for a 19-point drop to 2714.25 into the close.
Oversold RSIs at the 2712.75 low still require a retest. Tuesday morning’s “unfinished business below” at 2710.25 is outstanding, too. Isolating their tests to the overnight could launch a multi-session recovery of the pullback from last week’s highs. Failing to hold their tests would suggest this is not a pullback.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday was already retraced before Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s 1.2235 close. Perhaps neutralizing its attraction enabled the favorable knee-jerk reaction up. Surging to 1.2405 also tested the 1.2390 bounce limit, which held to continue suggesting the downside momentum remains intact. Closing above 1.2410 would suggest otherwise.
Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Stopping short of the actual 1305.00 low had bounced Tuesday, and firmed further Wednesday ahead of the FOMC policy statement, then extended even higher. The original 1325.50 sell signal was tested as resistance, and must be rejected without further delay to reinstate the downside momentum.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s bounce from fresh lows had not recovered relevant resistance, but Wednesday’s open gapped up and reacted favorably to the FOMC policy statement. Closing at or around 16.40 almost invalidates the downside momentum, which can be reinstated easily Thursday.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
the knee-jerk reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC statement spiked up to 144-04 before collapsing to support at 143-04 down to 143-00. Closing under 143-16 would target 142-00, tentatively, still needing confirmation from a second consecutive lower close Thursday. Otherwise, recovering 144-04 Thursday would resume the rally.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher Wednesday to test 64.05 confirms Tuesday’s breakout close, next targeting 65.00 so long as 62.70 now holds as support.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up slightly Wednesday to test 2.73 was reversed back down to Monday’s lows under 2.66, and still presumably on the way down to 2.62 or lower.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 22, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s busy calendar is also relatively high-profile, and at least two items have a track record for influencing price action. Also, any noticeable reaction to either pre-open report would likely be duplicated in reaction to a post-open report.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2732.00 | 2735.00 |
| …would target | 2737.75 | 2740.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2722.25 | 2725.25 |
| …would target | 2716.00 | 2719.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.