Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 27, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is the busiest in some time. It’s also both high-profile and reliably influential to price action. Meanwhile, any noticeable reaction to the pre-open Durable Goods report is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports. New Fed Chair Powell gives his first semi-annual congressional testimony. His opening remarks may be released before the open, with notice, somewhat similar to Yellen’s first testimony which she surprised the market by lifting the embargo on her remarks when the stock market was opening.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks [House]
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2766.25 | 2766.00 |
| …would target | 2774.25 | 2774.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2753.50 | 2753.25 |
| …would target | 2745.75 | 2745.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Early to rise, early to bed.
Early surge meets, holds and rejects resistance.
Post-open weakness had room down to 2753.25 while still being likely to recover to fresh highs. Post-open weakness only touched this morning’s 2757.00 bias-up signal as support, which was deep enough for a buy signal at 2760.00.
It triggered quickly and soon extended to fresh highs.
Fresh highs that pierced this morning’s 2766.50 bias-up target by 3 errant ticks. And then reversed down, sharply.
The 2757.00 bias-up signal was overlapped just in-time to invoke the grace period, which triggered late no-bias. Having tested both bias-up parameters, offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters is in-play. So far, that has resulted in a test of 2753.25, which is reacting up sharply.
Is the bias signal’s lateness more relevant than its rejection of both bias-up parameters? Back above 2759.00 would start to signal yes, targeting at least 2764.25. Having at least touched 2759.00, back under 2755.00 would signal the bounce had failed.
A bias signal can be undermined by triggering late. So far as this morning, exiting the bias environment under its 2757.00 bias-up signal would confirm the offsetting test of its 2738.00 and 2726.50 bias-down parameters remains in-play.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Lost week.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The weekend’s impending illiquidity neither rejected Friday’s gap up to 2718.00, nor caused its rejection. Friday Factors didn’t seem influential at all through the first hour’s 2713.00-2723.00 range, or the morning bias environment’s rally attacking 2730.00 resistance. But Friday Factors were likely to be influential at least once, and their illiquidity was getting exponentially closer every minute while the afternoon bias environment coiled back up to resistance. The balance of the session broke higher almost 20 points to attack 2750.00, 5 points short of the prior Friday’s 2755.00 high. Closing above Thursday’s 2731.00 high alone was enough to confirm its Isolation setup’s reversal remained intact.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked up to attack the prior Friday’s 2755.00 high within 1 point. Adding another 3 ticks reacted down 12 points to test 2743.00. Most of which was recovered by eking higher through midnight. Consolidating into Europe’s opens broke higher again, probing fresh recovery highs up to 2761.50.
If, then…
Completely retracing the prior week’s 2755.00 high was the reward for having contained its pullback to tests of 2701.50. The pullback included Wednesday night’s dip to 2782.00, which was isolated by Thursday’s open back above Wednesday’s lows. Even if the Isolation setup wasn’t confirmed until Friday, its likelihood for multiple sessions of follow-through still gets a benefit of the doubt. Regardless of any confidence in extending the bounce, be mindful that the 1987-style crash pattern’s analog is within days or hours of its final bounce’s peak. No analog is perfect in both its price and time measurements, as we discussed during this weekend’s Saturday Review. Only structure matters. So, the current bounce’s next higher objectives at 2813.00 and 2825.25-2827.75 are in-play on a close above 2857.00, and so long as upside momentum keeps in mind Satchel Paige’s most famous saying: “Don’t look back. Something might be gaining on you.”
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2753.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2757.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 2/24/18) …Another upleg? Watch your step.
The first Saturday Review in several weeks covered a lot of ground. It begins with a review of the price action that developed into early February’s low and its subsequent retest. Price action since then is tracked to understand the significant juncture that last week’s pullback and recovery have reached. And it’s all compared to the 1987 reversal pattern that is tracking with eerily similar timing and structure. All of which brings the market to a critical decision it will likely make this Monday or Tuesday, and the specific paths possible from there. Attendees offered insightful and helpful comments and questions, to which viewers of the video are welcome to add.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AMZN, TSLA, MU, SHOP, NFLX, AMAT, AMD
Rod David: Welcome to this weekend’s Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you. Thank you!
—————– (02/24/2018 09:36) —————–
David B: Good Morning
—————– (02/24/2018 09:56) —————–
Bill G: In 1987 when the spx made a lower high in early Oct the Nasdaq made a new high
—————– (02/24/2018 09:59) —————–
ljr ipad: would we expect a bear market if it follows the 87 analogy?
ljr ipad: similar to 2008?
Bill G: I’m talking about the current rally we are in
—————– (02/24/2018 10:05) —————–
Bill G: If we get a test of the low from a couple of weeks ago will not have the spt of the 200 day ma similar to what happened in 1987. Went through the 200 day
—————– (02/24/2018 10:07) —————–
ljr ipad: q: if we get a retest of the high, is there a possibility of new upleg?
—————– (02/24/2018 10:11) —————–
Bill G: My point earlier was that this rally may get a new high in NQ while the es may not ,similar to the test of high in 1987
—————– (02/24/2018 10:22) —————–
David B: AMZN
ljr ipad: stocks: TSLA! MU
—————– (02/24/2018 10:23) —————–
ljr ipad: SHOP, NFLX
ljr ipad: AMAT
—————– (02/24/2018 10:41) —————–
ljr ipad: curious, key vs pivot…anyone better than the other?
—————– (02/24/2018 10:47) —————–
ljr ipad: thx
Bill G: Thanks
David B: Thanks