Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 6, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s only influential econ report is Jobs Openings that follows Friday’s payrolls. It can inhibit price action before its release, but not afterward without also being a surprise compared to payrolls.
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2753.75 | 2754.50 |
| …would target | 2759.00 | 2760.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2744.50 | 2745.50 |
| …would target | 2737.25 | 2738.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Tooth and nail.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: I AM AWAY FROM THE SCREENS BETWEEN 11:30-1:30 ET TODAY.
A substantial bottom can be formed by only attacking prior lows, and not actually recovering from a probe lower. Substantial, not durable. The 2736.00 pre-open low stopped 3 points short of the initial overnight low. 
Bouncing to 2750.00 was retraced to a fresh low at 2736.00, but the earlier overnight low was untouched.
That proved to be enough to launch what has become a substantial bounce. Its first reaction up attacked this mornings 2747.25 bias-down target. Retracing it to 2738.00 held through the opening 15 minutes of volatility and was recovered entirely.
Then more. Much more.
The reward for preventing the bias-down from renewing (i.e. breaking under the bias-down target through 10:15) was at last to retest 2750.00, if not also the 2753.25 bias-down signal. The latter was touched in time invoke the grace period, and now it is recovered in time to trigger late no–bias.
No-bias, after holding tests of BOTH bias-down parameters puts into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. Triggering late is less reliable, but the 2766.25 bias-up signal’s test is still likely. Already 2763.00 has been touched, and overbought RSIs there require a retest.
Back under 2753.25 would signal momentum reversing down, confirming this bounce has been only a correction and that 2722.00 is still on the path down before a durable path up.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… It survived the weekend.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s open gapped down 16 points to 2806.00, fulfilling the next lower objectives at 2805.00.That was 14-15 points above the pre-open low, which the first half-hour probed down to 2889.00. If not rejected into the noon hour, then the next lower objective at 2766.00 would be in-play. The relentless slide met it, and its room for noise down to 2760.00 at the cash session close. Post-close action spiked down to 2755.25. All of which retraced January’s rally by 61.8% back down to December’s ~2700.00 highs, reversing the first week of the annual earnings onslaught.
Overnight action’s new info…
Extending last week’s decline would next target 2747.00 and 2738.00 then 2722.00. Sunday night’s opening bar pierced 2738.00 by 2 ticks. It was probed and retested, but not broken before price firmed through the night to attack 2752.00. A pullback recovered to 2755.00 before diving into Europe’s opens. That held 2745.00 and recovered to test 2756.00 back at Friday’s post-close lows. That only seems to have angered and awoken last week’s decline, as the past 3 hours have trended straight back down to — and now 3 points through — 2738.00.
If, then…
Isolating the probe under Friday’s lows to the overnight would have formed a setup capable of new highs before allowing the next downleg. The past several hours plunging 20 points makes that unlikely. Still probing fresh lows at Monday’s open, and not recovering 2747.00 and 2738.00 would next target 2722.00. Testing it at the open could find no sellers, and produce a corrective bounce. But any bounce at this stage is only corrective, or at least should be required to prove otherwise.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2743.50 would be likely to trigger the 2747.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Globex chaRTroom Link
Adobe launched an unscheduled maintenance last night, and I have yet to hear back when it will end. Meanwhile, Sunday night’s open spiked down and extended 25 points. Extending last week’s decline would next target 2747.00 and 2738.00 then 2722.00. Sunday night’s opening bar pierced 2738.00 by 2 ticks.
2738.00 was probed and retested, but not broken before price firmed back up through 2747.00, to now probe back above what is this morning’s 2853.00 bias-down signal by 6 ticks. Holding 2747.00 as support and exceeding 2753.00 are constructive to retracing the rest — and to potentially greeting the open above Friday’s lows, isolating the probe under Friday’s lows to the overnight.
Isolating the probe under Friday’s lows to the overnight would form a setup capable of new highs before allowing the next downleg. Still probing fresh lows at Monday’s open would more likely retest 2747.00 and 2738.00 and then extend down to 2722.00.
I’ll have alternative chaRTroom instructions in the morning if Adobe hasn’t yet returned. Meanwhile, you’re welcome to CLICK HERE TO RETRY