Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 30, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s high-profile econ report comes after post-open. But it would likely duplicate any obivous reaction to either of the two pre-open reports .
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2865.50 | 2866.25 |
| …would target | 2870.50 | 2871.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2857.25 | 2858.25 |
| …would target | 2852.50 | 2853.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Turnabout is fair play.
Opening bounce fails to maintain.
Regardless of the 3 upside attractions now outstanding, 
sellers are in control.
That was first indicated by exiting the opening 15 minutes of volatility at 9:45 under the earlier 2873.50 overnight low — when the interim 2878.50 overnight high had probed the prior session’s high. This slingshot’s influence tends to last through the morning, if not also through the following morning.
Then the post-open bounce attacked 2872.25 to its room for noise at 2871.00, where it started becoming attractive to sell. And finally, so far, the bounce’s failure has triggered the 2866.25 bias-down signal.
Already, the 2860.25 bias-down target has been met. And now probed, considerably, down to 2855.75. That’s Friday morning’s highs, “higher prior lows” that could be difficult to break and may instead hold. Oversold RSIs suggest a bounce would fail. But recovering 2860.25 as the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30 would suggest the low’s retest will wait for a bigger bounce.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… This might hurt a bit.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up extended higher too late to confirm the follow-through was strong-handed. The noon hour’s rally earned a similar, albeit inconsequential, objective. How inconsequential? When I was stepping away from the screens early as the position-squaring window was closing, the 7-point gap up to 2847.00 had extended 21 points. That touched the next higher objective above 2848.00 at 2868.00. Usual and reliable Friday Factors helped — from the persistent morning’s bias, to squeezing the bias environment exit on a trending day. After I left, the rally extended to its room for noise at 2872.25.
Overnight action’s new info…
Extending higher after the cash session close touched 2876.00. And extending that again soon after Sunday night’s open pierced 2874.25. All of which was retraced back down to the rally’s 2872.25 room for noise that was tested into Friday’s close. The natural support back down at unchanged was tested through midnight, but never launched a recovery before giving way through Europe’s opens. Fresh overnight lows at 2864.00 have retraced back down to Friday’s final-hour entry.
If, then…
The new week isn’t being greeted by the familiar optimism. Which could be doubly problematic, since that sentiment was dominant into the weekend. And also out of the weekend, initially. So, triply problematic? How about quadruply problematic: Recall that Friday’s open ignored the two-week pattern of rejecting early strength early. To the degree that was due to the Friday Factors’ impending illiquidity, then how dramatically will the new week compensate for it? Exiting this morning’s opening 15 minutes of volatility at 9:45 under the earlier overnight low around 2873.50 would reject the overnight probe above Friday’s high. All that having been said, the open may very well absorb or retrace its gap down. Even if not, a new trend extreme close on a Friday requires there to be at least another, eventually. And now the initial overnight rally had complexity to qualify as a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest, eventually. Leaving them outstanding by an immediate downdraft Monday would be considered only temporary, no matter the reversal’s degree or duration.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2864.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2866.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2870.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2875.00 | 2876.25 |
| …would target | 2881.00 | 2882.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2865.00 | 2866.25 |
| …would target | 2859.00 | 2860.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.