Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s rejection of Wednesday’s weak-handed surge had triggered its 1.1465 sell signal, which extended down overnight. Friday morning’s gap down under the original 1.1405 sell signal that was originally avoided and extended down sharply to attack 1.1350. The second consecutive lower close confirmed that at least an eventual third lower close is in-play, but bounces should now hold 1.1425.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight into Thursday’s open retraced 61.8% of Thursday’s intraday drop. The morning held up, trying to probe a little higher. Maintaining the recovery through the close would signal the rally has resumed.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight strength up to 15.55 retraced 61.8% of Thursday’s intraday drop before returning to Thursday’s 15.38 low. Back above 15.55 is still needed to signal the rally has resumed.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s gap up into a 2-point intraday rally to 149-04confirms what was already being signaled above 146-00 and by holding tests of 145-16 — that a bottom is in. Now it is obvious to the world, so the pattern become vulnerable to another pullback. Room down to 147-17/147-25 would keep alive upside momentum without having to fill gaps down to 146-04 or test “lower prior highs.”
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s failure to confirm Wednesday’s breakout had opened the door to a deeper pullback if Friday did not immediately extend higher. Friday did not immediately extend higher, as overnight weakness under the 59.50-59.75 pullback limit accelerated down to attack 58.25. Coinciding with previously influential uptrending support, Friday’s dip must be rejected immediately back above 59.35 to avoid a deeper pullback targeting 56.50.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Failing to greet Thursday’s EIA from a position of strength by not holding 2.84 Wednesday has extended down again overnight to 2.72. Intraday lows held 2.75, but any lower coming out of the weekend could slide back to 2.72 and lower.
Mid-day Update… Choppy, but droppy.
No windows are being rejected.
This is this week’s fourth reversal of a substantial bounce. And this was the biggest reversal, ending at the lowest level. 
Yesterday’s rally was a function of all the ballast that had been dumped during the three prior intraday reversals. But as I described during the Market Tour, strong-handed distribution isn’t positioning for a 2-3 day correction. The pullback’s ultimate low could be 2-3 weeks away. And much lower.
The open’s bounce had an opportunity to reject the overnight slide. But the bounce was rejected, aggressively, quickly falling to touch the next lower objective at 2830.75. Its reaction offered an opportunity to reject the post-open slide. But that bounce was also rejected by sharply lower lows. The noon hour entry attacked 2809.00, already retracing yesterday’s pre-open 2813.75 low.
Now having avoided triggering this afternoon’s 2813.00 bias-down signal — which is still being tested — there’s another opportunity to reject the slide. Friday Factors could help to trigger a short-squeeze, but there’s no requirement to bounce at all. And there’s no requirement to resume the decline today, but those Friday Factors: the growing realization of this being a distributive market is greeting two days of impending illiquidity. Refer to the first paragraph.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 25, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s two econ reports are high-profile, but neither is reliably influential to price action. The pre-open Fed speaker might be high-profile, but is too early to have an intraday effect.
Patrick Harker Speaks
6:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2817.00 | 2822.00 |
| …would target | 2823.00 | 2828.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2808.00 | 2813.00 |
| …would target | 2798.50 | 2803.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Another rally rejected?
Attempting a fourth reversal this week.
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday each contained intraday rallies that were retraced entirely that day. 
The pattern is distribution. All of that recent selling helped yesterday’s rally, which had far less challenging ballast.
But the Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday pattern never suggested it was done. And now yesterday’s significant intraday rally has been retraced by more than 61.8%.
Failing to recover at the open was likelier to trend down, next targeting 2830.75. The open’s low touched it and reacted up sharply to 2843.50. Now the bounce has failed, probing fresh lows again by to at least 2828.25.
The next lower objective is 2823.75. And then a retest of yesterday’s lows. Another bounce can’t be dismissed, but it otherwise appears that the downside remains intact.