Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… The only path up is this.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s drop had been retraced somewhat ahead of Wednesday’s open. A blip-up to 2746.75 quickly collapsed to probe the overnight low by 3 ticks down to 2736.50. All of which was recovered as the morning’s bias environment was entered. Firming steadily into the afternoon’s bias environment probed the gap back up to Tuesday’s 2750.75 close where Nafta withdrawal headlines triggered another dip to 2744.00. An eventual bounce retraced 61.8% of the dip into the cash session close, still in negative territory.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initial narrow ranging under Wednesday’s late high was suddenly interrupted by a 5-point surge to 2754.50. A 7-point dip retraced it, and then some to test 2748.00. But that was recovered as quickly back up to 2754.50 by midnight, where price has hovered into and out of Europe’s opens. Only now is the narrow range breaking, with a probe to fresh highs at 2756.50.
If, then…
Yesterday’s intraday rally had stopped short of recovering positive territory. Twice. And the afternoon dip had exited the bias environment lower, without recovering, either. Extending yesterday’s rally without delay all but requires gapping up above relevant levels from Tuesday afternoon, which is currently indicated. Only now is overnight action repeating the aggression it had showed much earlier. That’s late enough to still be considered restrained optimism, and not so late to be considered weak-handed. Regardless, it must be maintained through the open to influence intraday action targeting a retets of Tuesday’s highs up to 2765.25, as its rejection would still target 2730.75.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2753.50 would be likely to trigger the 2752.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2748.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Thursday but time for Thursday’s Morning Market to her and I’m not really able to classify this as a rally overnight and that may be the most bullish thing about it because otherwise having extended hire its optimism is restrained no it’s just back out for a moment from this very recent surge this surge that is matching the earlier search Globex initially narrow flat and then surged and suddenly stopped on a similarity they are but which is considerably back to all the way back up to hovering here and then also optimistically for not extending higher above Wednesday’s recovery itselfWednesdaystrong headed Breakout not too close to the or not too early to consider the overnight is having already expended all buying pressure just right up to a point still needs to be maintained for the open to extend iron today 12/8various pattern you can really see an inverted Head and Shoulders on a pull back will try and go for me here not bearish in the sense of distributive but didn’t really get a lot of momentum going so looking for at least a fresh High not necessarily anything more much more than that quite the opposite is the pound dipping more deeply I don’t have a cell signal at work on the pound this is pretty much just noise coming back down to lower eyes having left unfinished business the spike was or at least being absorbed and here is the low is being tested Euro as its
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Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2751.00 | 2752.00 |
| …would target | 2756.50 | 2757.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2742.00 | 2743.00 |
| …would target | 2736.50 | 2737.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Neither of Wednesday afternoon’s bias signals was even attacked before triggering no-bias. But the morning’s retracement continued firming and attacked the 2752.00 bias-up signal to within 1 tick. Would it have broken higher, if not for rumors of US announcing withdrawal from Nafta?
Already reacting down 2 points, the headline triggered a drop that ultimately tested the 2745.25 bias-down signal by 4-5 ticks. The drop began early enough to attract strong-handed reinforcements, but never did.
Wednesday afternoon’s drop was retraced almost entirely up to 2751.00 through the futures close. Expending buying pressure during that otherwise irrelevant window suggests that buyers are weak-handed. Gapping up to trigger bias-up Thursday would at least retest Tuesday’s highs, but otherwise another downdraft would target 2730.75.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s confirmation of Monday’s breakout made Wednesday’s gap up premature for resuming the rally, as at least one more lower close under 1.1960 is now required.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying sharply to test 1328.50 on the China / Treasuries news was isolated as Wednesday’s regular open had retraced already back under Friday’s 1324.00 prior highs. A fresh high close would still be credible for extending, but now another test of 1308.85 would be much likelier to reverse down.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up immediately reversed down to test unchanged as the China /Treasuries news wore off. Closing back above 17.20 would still be credible for extending higher, but closing under 16.95 would be that much likelier to reverse the trend down.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesdays’ sharp break under 151-16 to new lows was extended down sharply overnight on the China /Treasuries news. Despite rallying out of the 149-03 open, just closing negative has confirmed Tuesday’s breakout and now requires an eventual third lower close. Meanwhile, the gap down under all prior lows also wants to be filled before a recovery would be credible.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping to new recovery highs Wednesday was resisted by 63.52 as the session hovered narrowly. Pullbacks now have room down to 62.15 to maintain the 64.25-64.75 target.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing higher overnight to attack 3.00 didn’t prevent Wednesday’s flat open or further retracing back down to the 2.86 buy signal. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength for the breakout, with restrained optimism for having corrected back to support. A second consecutive higher confirming close would have been stronger, but a favorable reaction or recovery from an unfavorable reaction is likely.
Mid-day Update… Between a soft rock and a not-hard place.
Recovery ranging between obligatory levels.
The open’s plunge back to and through overnight lows was recovered entirely during the morning bias environment. Down from 2746.75 to 2736.50, and back up to 2748.50. Flat-to-higher ranging since then eked its way back above yesterday morning’s 2748.00 lows to attack yesterday’s 2750.75 close.
2748.00 and 2750.75. Not quite the proverbial “rock and a hard place.” But still relevant support / resistance whose recovery or rejection through a relevant window would be likely to extend in that direction.
Back under 2746.50 would start to signal another downleg underway targeting 2730.75. There’s otherwise no requirement to trend any more for the balance of today — or tomorrow morning, either, if the balance of today hasn’t ranged away from 2748.00 and 2750.75.