Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Counting down to closing up.
At least a probe of fresh highs is likely.
Testing the 2733.00 bias-up target became likely when the 2727.75 bias-up signal triggered. Also testing the 2734.75 Globex high became likely upon getting back into its orbit at 2733.00. Both were done before the morning bias environment lapsed.
The noon hour dipped to 2731.00, and then back up to 2734.25. Now the afternoon has triggered no-bias. But Friday Factors open the door to simply drifting higher during the afternoon. That would have been more reliable had fresh highs been probed this morning. But exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the morning’s highs could still extend.
Until actually probing a fresh high, and maintaining it, there remains nearer-term risk of reversing back down to fresh session lows.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 8, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two early-afternoon Fed speakers are Monday’s only highlights, as no economic reports are due out in the morning.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
12:40 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks
1:35 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2734.75 | 2734.50 |
| …would target | 2740.25 | 2740.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2728.00 | 2727.75 |
| …would target | 2721.75 | 2721.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up. Emphasis on holding.
Post-news lower than pre-news.
The 2733.00 bias-up target was touched moments before the Employment Situation report was released. Its knee-jerk reaction down to 2729.75 was reversed up as quickly to a fresh high and higher to 2734.75. Neither extreme extended, as as slide back between them greeted the open at 2732.25.
The 2733.00 bias-up target was touched again, which now also represented a 61.8% retracement back up to the pre-open high. Both being resistance, price collapsed to 2726.50. Its recovery touched the 2732.25 opening print, also resistance, triggering another reaction down.
The 2727.75 signal was attacked to within 3 ticks. But it had become too late to avoid triggering bias-up. This is a bias-up environment whose bias-up target has been met. Already having met the target, and having yet to probe the pre-10:15 high, another downdraft is possible. Anything under the bias-up signal would be similar to no-bias trending, and required to recover.
But it’s still possible — not so much to test the bias-up target that the open already touched, but also for an intraday test of the overnight “new Globex trend extreme.” A retest of the overnight high may be required, but could be delayed indefinitely. So, a break lower may not collapse, but its recovery wouldn’t be assured.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Optimism, or Pavlovian?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Closing above 2703.00 Wednesday had put into play 2722-2727. Rallying overnight greeted the open at 2719.00 quickly extended higher. And higher. The higher target was fulfilled as the morning’s bias environment began. Perhaps The balance of the session ranged widely between 2722-2727, not closing beyond either end to trigger a breakout in either direction.
Overnight action’s new info…
Breaking higher hasn’t ended, but it’s starting later and later. Last night’s ranging finally started rallying at Europe’s opens. Wednesday night had resumed rallying before midnight, and Tuesday’s intraday rally barely stopped. Today’s 2733.00 bias-target is now being attacked to within 1 tick as a shallow consolidation resolves up. There is complexity that already makes this a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest, often the same day.
If, then…
Was yesterday’s late-afternoon’s weakness was caused by anxiousness ahead of the next morning’s Employment Situation report? Europe’s exchanges were closed then, and last night’s rally didn’t start until they had re-opened. So, already extending higher doesn’t reflect local optimism. Restrained optimism ahead of monthly payrolls actually tends to react favorably. Whether reacting well or recovering from a knee-jerk reaction down, trending up through the open could marginalize sellers for the morning and possibly also for the day. But the overnight origin of these new highs suggests it’s not optimism for the report. AND resistance at the bias-up target is already being attacked. So, be equally prepared for the rally’s sponsorship to disappear.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary indications aren’t available ahead of Employment Situation reports.
Phonetic dictation…
hey good morning and welcome it is Friday it’s time for Friday morning Market to order quick quick note quick programming note at the top throw Saturday so we have a Saturday review it’s been several weeks because of the holiday weekends but we have a Saturday review this weekend with a Saturday review next weekend I think the next two weekends and then the last week of the month we actually skipping the following weekend back again so get it while you can instructions will be emailed in the morning tomorrow morning this morning we have again overnight and that pretty muchthat all aside I just know that if the open Trends up and if it Trends up after having reacted down need your reaction down if it Trends up just maintaining the overnight rally if the reaction brings in more shorts short-covering just trending up through the open will get every benefit of the dad for being able to extend higher in today after this pattern though just know that if that is not happening the open isn’t trending up if there is at this stageTripoli opposed or at least in the majority of outcomes there are outcomes that work out their issues by consolidating and relieving that big stretch of the rubber band that big stretch of the rubber band that’s either going to snap back down imagine yourself stretching a rubber band between your thumb and index finger with one hand and with the other thumb and index finger of the other hand stretching it back and it’s some point one or the other gives either you’re stretching it back let’s go and then rubber band snaps back so here’s the stretch and then it snaps back back down or the rubber band and you’re stretching it and then your hand goes flying in that direction in I call that the up down crash up down cuz it one way or anothernatural gas we could still have a couple big down days here coming down to 78th and that’s pretty much the limit of the pullback just as a correction because of these ongoing series of gaps up closing higher that’s a lot of strength not that it’s a lot of momentum that requires breaking higher but it creates a context to help absorb absorb a reaction down because there’s nothing there or rainforestbut I wouldn’t I would be surprised if that suddenly stopped Bitcoin this pattern not Barrett as I pointed out a couple days ago that didn’t prevent the dip there’s anything we need to dip was going to be recovered because it was originating from a bullet pattern short of that pattern size that pessimism despite having and we’ll go from there but still looking for 17000 alright
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