Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… One down. (A correction, and Bitcoin comments.)
Immediate drop from bias-up signal’s resistance.
Pre-open hovering at or around this morning’s 2688.25 bias-up signal greeted the open with a blip-up to 2689.00. 
Its immediate reaction down fell to 2686.00, and then lower to 2683.50.
The likelihood for resolving down had suggested an initial short, with a stop (or stop-and-reverse to long) above 2689.50. Breaking under 2686.00 signaled momentum reversing down. And now no-bias has triggered. Holding a test of the bias-up signal has put into play an offsetting test of the 2681.50 bias-down signal.
If tested during the bias environment, then 2681.50 should define the window’s lower-end. That doesn’t preclude it from being probed, perhaps down to the 2679.00 or 2675.50 unfinished business below. Back above 2686.75 would start to signal momentum reversing back up.
CORRECTION: I’ve been referring to an early close for tomorrow, based on SIFMA’s recommendation. But the exchanges are open through regular trading hours. Then, similar to the Christmas weekend break, Globex does not re-open until Monday at 6:00 PM ET.
Meanwhile, we had an interesting review of several Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, of course, and Etherium. But also Litecoin, Ripple and Iota. I will be updating the blog before Tuesday to discuss any relevant price action among them.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Another slight bounce.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Before seasonal holiday bullishness resumes its influence, sellers had a fading opportunity Wednesday to insert a downdraft. Perhaps even to fulfill “unfinished business below” at 2679.00 and 2675.50. Despite triggering the 2688.75 bias-up signal late, and creating “unfinished business above” at its 2693.75 target, a downdraft did begin mid-morning and fell to 2681.50. The position-squaring window popped back up to the afternoon bias environment’s 2685.25 high. Meanwhile, the afternoon’s bias-down signal had triggered, late, and left unfinished business below at its 2679.00 bias-down target.
Overnight action’s new info…
Surging out of Wednesday’s position-squaring window extended to 2686.25 into the futures close. Globex dipped to 2684.00 and then resumed the rally. It has been relentless, albeit shallow, up to 2688.50. That was yesterday’s sell signal that had triggered going into the noon hour, and 1 tick above this morning’s bias-up signal.
If, then…
Yesterday’s position-squaring window bounce originated too late to be strong-handed, and it was only noise since it peaked at the afternoon bias environment’s high. The overnight extension is only noise, so far, for having retraced the last downleg’s sell signal. Wednesday’s downdraft began in time to be credible ahead of the bullish influences, but it doesn’t have unlimited time to fully develop. If sellers can’t prevent the bias-up signal from triggering, then Wednesday’s 2675.50 unfinished business below could be delayed until next year. Bias-up would likely marginalize sellers for the morning, which would be long enough for seasonal bullishness and quarterly portfolio window dressing influences to take over through tomorrow’s early close. The key to one more downdraft is to start it early, which I’ll give every benefit of the doubt if bias-up doesn’t trigger. Just by not gapping up above Wednesday’s highs, fresh lows remain in-play.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2690.50 would be likely to trigger the 2688.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2686.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Thursday time for Thursday morning Market to our don’t forget it’s a early closed tomorrow so we’ll be doing an early market wrap and it’s a holiday weekend so there’s no Saturday review so it’ll be an extended market wrap or where we’ll look at the bigger picture and I’ll be going into more detail in the Bitcoin anticipation we’ll see what happens I’ll mention somethinglittle bit of a rally overnight not much just relentless the open initially dipped the open initially dipped after yesterday’s very late rally the position scoring window started very late not a positive two virgins down here RS I never got over sold on that last low all noise made it only back to the buy some Byron High at least during the Futures extended a little higher before it became relevant even or inflection point wasn’t touched until well into the evening extensionhey I are actually another couple of ticks higher would not only recover that sell signal but also threatened to trigger the bicep signal this morning’s bicep 2688 75 so long as bias up doesn’t trigger and especially if bias up is rejected by testing it and not triggering it putting into play in offsetting test of the bias down signal 8150 yesterday’s low as it happens and then probably lower 279 we’re going to leave in place that likely scenario returning to fulfilling and into a seasonally bullish environment the rest of the day which then probably March through the week which margarinegreat significance overnight but yesterday’s flat the lower arranging did not confirm Tuesday’s almost literal explosion higher above resistance and it is being greeted from a position of strength breakout or break higher but still not from a position of weakness andSouth Korea has stirred the pot overnight basically by indicating there going to be man man dating a non Anonymous trading basically in cryptocurrencies wherever the new year is greeted in each timezone that’s going to be each time zone that has a structure which allows delaying the recognition of a game until that year the premise still being that there is a big reaction down coming as soon as sellers can get in there I would prefer to see that come from at the time could make that even more substantial remember
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Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2683.50 | 2688.25 |
| …would target | 2689.00 | 2693.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2676.75 | 2681.50 |
| …would target | 2670.75 | 2675.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday afternoon’s late bias-down signal wasn’t the least bit productive. Actually, it WAS the least bit productive. More important was that the bias signal wasn’t rejected. So, its 2679.00 bias-down target becomes “unfinished business below.”
How choppy is this market environment? The morning’s late bias-up signal left outstanding its 2693.75 bias-up target. Now it becomes “unfinished business above.” Each requires being met eventually. As does last Wednesday’s outstanding 2675.50 bias-down target.
Until proved otherwise, I’m still giving the downside a benefit of the doubt for exercising its influence. Wednesday’s downdraft began in time to be credible ahead of another 3-day holiday weekend’s seasonal bullishness. But it doesn’t have unlimited time to fully develop. Unless Thursday’s open were to gap up above Wednesday’s highs, fresh lows remain in-play.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
It was already just a formality to actually trigger the 1.1965 buy signal since the 1.1930 sell signal had failed multiple times. Wednesday’s gap up to 1.1965 extended higher through the morning .
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s intraday probe above the rally’s 1283.50 target was extended overnight to also test 1292.00 into Wednesday afternoon, next targeting 1298.00, but meanwhile vulnerable to a correction testing 1280.50.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher after Tuesday’s close fulfilled the rally’s 16.65 target and rallied Wednesday morning to attack 16.80. The next higher objective in-play is 16.90, so long as 16.65 now holds pullbacks.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing Tuesday at the 151-16 buy signal wasn’t decisive. But that didn’t prevent Wednesday’s open from gapping up to Tuesday’s 151-26 high and surging through the morning to probe the 152-22 target up to 153-00. The recovery’s momentum remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 152-22 as support.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Almost literally exploding higher Tuesday above the 58.65 inflection point could have been confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Wednesday, but was not. That doesn’t prevent extending higher anyway to the next higher objective at 61.10, so long as pullbacks now hold 58.65. Regardless, EIA is being greeted from a position of strength
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s rejection of Monday night’s gap up above 2.71 had dipped to fill the gap back down to Friday’s 2.66 close. Wednesday’s gap up spent the day fluctuating flat-to-higher around 2.71, and a second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm a recovery underway. EIA is not being greeted from a position of weakness.