Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2682.50 | 2688.75 |
| …would target | 2987.25 | 2693.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2675.75 | 2682.25 |
| …would target | 2680.50 | 2676.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The week began with relatively choppy overnight ranging that kept Tuesday’s first hour choppy, too. But the range quickly contracted to a matter of ticks. Flat-to-lower ranging probed a fresh low AFTER the 3:10-3:20 proxy window had closed, which was already too late to be durable. Greeting Wednesday’s open above Tuesday’s range would be credible for extending higher, and for probing new highs. Otherwise, “unfinished business below” continues to inhibit a recovery, while the opening between two seasonally bullish windows gives room for a downdraft.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Not yet breaking under 1.1930 last week already had made a break above 1.1965 only a formality, which Tuesday morning’s rally attempted, even after an early dip that briefly pierced 1.1930 as support.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher overnight touched the rally’s 1283.50 target, before extending higher Tuesday to test 1288.00. Holding 1283.50 would allow the rally to extend to 1298.00 But the 1277.50-1280.50 resistance was only mildly influential, and resulted in gapping up Tuesday, which suggests that a pullback is likelier than extending higher. Regardless, a deeper pullback could test the 1270.00 area before reversing the trend down.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The weekend’s exit probed above Friday’s high, but only to range around them, until extending higher Tuesday morning to attack the 16.65 target to within a nickel. Tuesday’s gap up does create an anchor to help any reaction down to recover instead of ending the rally.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s open probed 151-16 through the morning, and the afternoon dipped back down to 151-16 as support. Closing above it would next target 152-22. Closing back under 151-16 need not resume the decline, no matter how much more vulnerable the pattern becomes.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Touching 58.65 resistance overnight had reacted down ahead of Tuesday’s open, and then almost literally exploded higher to 59.90 as the pattern was projecting. The rally can extend to 61.10 so long as pullbacks now hold 58.50 as support.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday night to 2.71 and probing higher was still attracted lower by the gap back down to Friday’s 2.66 close. Tuesday’s post-open dip filled the gap, so that closing back above 2.71 would launch a recovery rally .
Mid-day Update… Narrower afternoon.
6-tick range avoiding all controversy.
While overnight and opening action were contained within Friday afternoon’s range, the ranging was choppy. The range has persisted through the noon hour, but narrowed considerably, as the choppiness disappears.
Again, neither bias signal is being attacked. Much more so this afternoon than this morning. None of which precludes a trending attempt this afternoon, but makes a trending attempt likelier to extend for releasing its pent-up buying or selling pressure.
Still not rallying does continue to suggest there are inhibiting attractions below. Fresh highs would get a benefit of the doubt for extending, but more briefly than would a break lower.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Dec 27, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar has two housing sector data. Either could be influential if it’s surprising. The second could also get a reaction based on its combination with the first. For context, last week’s housing sector reports reflected increased activity. Meanwhile, the post-open Consumer Confidence does have a track record for influencing price action.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET