Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2668.75 | 2671.75 |
| …would target | 2673.75 | 2677.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2660.25 | 2663.50 |
| …would target | 2654.50 | 2657.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Suddenly silent.
Post-open action is ranging narrowly.
Tuesday night’s dip and Wednesday’s intraday choppiness are reflecting the market’s widely disparate opinions, and little inhibition from expressing them. The action is warning us that the market intends to try trending, and may even succeed, if not reject an otherwise extended attempt along the way.
Measurements of last night’s swings suggest the template remains influential. But the open has been relatively subdued. A little more volatile than a Saturday or Sunday, but not much.
The pre-open recovery from yesterday’s late 2666.25 low had extended to 2673.50. It was the second overnight retracement, and both had measured 61.8%. But the 2670.00 open only dipped deeper, attacking 2667.00. And now it has been retraced to test 2671.00.
Post-open action isn’t wide enough to have the same sponsorship behind the recent choppiness. And it’s not a function of having expended either buyers or sellers. More of a “dry cleaners morning” is suggested — even if not contained narrowly, still frustrating to trade.
Expiration related? Possibly, if not probably. Yesterday’s WedEX signal suggests there’s sellers into strength. This morning suggests there’s not sellers into weakness. Fresh session lows testing the 2664.25 bias-down signal remain possible, but an organic downdraft (i.e. not triggered by a news) is unlikely.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Trying to kick its way out.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open gapped up 3 points, hardly suggesting there had been an 8-point drop overnight. But it was the first bit of refueling all week, and the first refueling since one week prior. The open exploited by surging to new highs attacking 2675.00 and triggering bias-up. Refueling or not, that was still a lot of optimism just ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC events. An 8-point drop refueled again, but only for recovering to the morning’s highs. No higher. Despite the restrained optimism, the final hour slid to fresh session lows attacking 2666.00, closing unchanged at 2667.25. The morning’s 2677.75 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.”
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s final hour collapse seems to have fully expressed whatever pessimism triggered it. Globex opened with a bounce that retraced at least 61.8% of the late intraday drop. That bounce’s own 61.8% retracement has been recovered entirely, and then some, getting two within 6 ticks of yesterday afternoon’s highs.
If, then…
Wednesday’s choppy action in a relatively narrow range already suggests that a more durable trending attempt is coming. The final hour’s collapse was a glimpse of that, and now so also is its overnight retracement. Not an entire retracement — not yet, if at all — but the directional change reflects more opposing opinion, more of which is reflected in its own swings’ measurements. Meanwhile, Wednesday’s failed probe of multi-session highs triggered a “passive bearish” WedEX. That could be reversed by the proxy of this morning’s open gapping up to new highs. Otherwise, more probes of fresh highs remain possible, and they remain vulnerable to reversing back down sharply into the range, if not also below it.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2671.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2672.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it’s Thursday time for Thursday’s morning like at 2 or I’m going to squeeze in this update between meetings Bank of England meeting that just ended ECB meeting and policy statement coming and then Mario draghi speaking lots of opportunity interested in taking something speeding some sort of move because we got a lot of volatility in here and then up toOkay so maybe a bridge too far up to Tuesday’s High and then a big overnight reaction down big recovery we’re just running to expand the range not getting too much more out of the for the effort that is Wednesday despite probing Tuesday’s High a couple times didn’t close above it by the way Wednesday of expiration week the wet X signal number bells and whistles here are the most important ones in this setup being that there is multi-session trending and Wednesday probed a fire high or low and didn’t go out overlapping that Pryor high or low actually either exceeded or held and in this case held that the prior High that is passive not active active would have been towhy is going to become vulnerable to reversing back down calculable e preferably from hitting 2677 75 or 2 within 3 checks breaking lower instead that’ll leave that unfinished business above still be looking for some spot to buy it or to assume that there is potential to hold in Reverse backup marketsplus minus a nickel at this point natural gas position of strength and actually probing lower overnight ahead of it so still room all the way up to 290 before even signaling that a new rally leg new rally leg is in the waythe range wasn’t breaking out of its initial hi we see this a lot I’ve never seen this pattern for instance go back to Alibaba go back to Facebook go back to I believe snap Knotts death GoPro these initial initial dumps I mean this is not a stock you should at least producer
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Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2669.50 | 2672.50 |
| …would target | 2674.75 | 2677.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2661.25 | 2664.25 |
| …would target | 2654.50 | 2657.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Unlike the week’s rally so far, Wednesday’s probe of fresh highs was the first optimistic effort that followed some semblance of refueling. Even that was wanting, being an overnight dip. At least the pullback was isolated, and it recovered from testing relevant support at 2660.50. But that optimism bordered on excessive again by surging through the open to probe new highs.
At least bias-up was triggered to create an upside objective. Wednesday morning’s 2677.75 bias-up target was attacked to within 3 points before dropping 8 points through the noon hour. The second correction in 24 hours was rewarded when the FOMC policy statement triggered a spike up to attack the morning’s highs. Hovering pessimistically short into the final hour broke lower again, to fresh session lows attacking 2666.00.
Choppy action in a relatively narrow range suggests a more durable trending attempt coming. Wednesday’s late break was a glimpse, whether of its direction or of the trending intent. This week is expiration, and the WedEX signal has triggered “passive bearish,” so volatility should persist.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.