Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s probing of the 1.1860 sell signal still wasn’t resolved Wednesday, despite probing a little lower overnight and generally remaining under the signal all day.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Upside momentum had become jeopardized by two consecutive sessions holding the recently filled 1295.50 gap instead of extending through it. Interim weakness was not exploiting its test of support. The consequence was Wednesday’s break lower, to and through the 1285.50 sell signal. A second consecutive lower close Thursday under 1280.50 would confirm a bigger downleg underway.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding last week’s test of the 17.11 buy signal had reacted down to 16.95 support, and then to almost fill an outstanding gap at 16.70 to within 2 cents. Stopping optimistically short of the objective suggested that testing the next lower objective at 16.50 would be done more aggressively. Breaking sharply lower Wednesday morning extended to fresh lows at 16.45.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Repeated failures to extend intraday bounces had continually held 154-00 as support. Its eventual break could have bottomed at 153-20, but Wednesday opened there and extended down to test 153-00. Back above 153-20 would signal a pullback had ended, and recovering 154-00 and higher would be only a formality. Closing under 153-00 would signal a much deeper downleg underway.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s failure to recover 58.15 compounded with Monday’s similar failure, keeping alive the pullback’s downside potential. Weakness after Tuesday’s API and Wednesday morning’s EIA extended the pullback to test “lower prior highs” and to fill a gap down to 56.75. Closing back above 57.40 would signal the pullback had ended and momentum is reversing up.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up again Wednesday probed the 3.12-3.16 bounce limit. Closing higher suggests the lows won’t be retested before a more substantial rally develops. Unless confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Thursday, the likelier scenario would reverse down first to retest the lows and an outstanding objective at 2.77.
Mid-day Update… Holding pattern.
Not rallying, but not reversing down.
This morning’s reaction down from testing its 2633.50 bias-up target was probing under yesterday’s 2627.00 highs as the bias environment began. Chipping away at it extended lower to test 2620.00 as the noon hour began. Its reaction held the afternoon’s 2625.50 bias-up signal as resistance.
So, bias-up did not trigger. Neither did no-bias, since the bias signal was still being tested at both 1:20 and 1:30. This is a noN-bias environment. It often behaves like a no-bias, holding the bias signal that didn’t trigger. But that’s not required.
Meanwhile, this morning’s 2617.50 bias-down signal remains in-play. Its attraction could cause another probe under yesterday afternoon’s 2623.00 pullback low. So far, backing-and-filling under 2623.00 has been contained to one instance, leaving the morning’s bias environment and entering the noon hour. Testing 2617.50 would suggest the rally above 2623.00 is done.
Back above 2626.75 would start to signal the backing-and-filling threat under 2623.00 had been absorbed. The minimum reward would be to retest this morning’s high, probably today. The potential reward would be to extend above 2657.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 30, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Any noticeable reaction to either of Thursday’s two pre-open reports would likely be duplicated in reaction to post-open reports. Otherwise, only the post-open PMI has a reliable record for influencing price action. Note that any reaction from being released privately to its institutional subscribers would likely be duplicated when released publicly.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2626.00 | 2625.50 |
| …would target | 2631.75 | 2631.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2620.00 | 2619.50 |
| …would target | 2613.25 | 2612.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Ring around the rosie.
Sellers pounce on bias-up target like the plague.
The open was greeted at or around the 2628.50 bias-up signal. A brief bobble soon surged to fresh highs at 2631.50. The opening 15 minutes of volatility then lapsed.
Any higher by then would have been likely to trigger bias-up. The delay didn’t prevent fulfilling the 2633.50 bias-up target anyway. But probing it by 3 ticks into the top of the hour was premature.
Premature, and impatient. Potentially the stuff of weak-handed sponsorship. Its reaction down didn’t collapse immediately. But its eventual collapse down to 2625.25 overlapped the 2628.50 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period (3 minutes either way of 10:15).
Late no-bias triggered. An offsetting test of the 2617.50 bias-down signal is in-play. An interim bounce up to 2630.75 has resolved down to 2624.50. Today’s session could become defined as backing-and-filling into negative territory, without resuming the rally. And that would be bearish one day following yesterday’s rally to new highs.