Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Trying to trend, but not.
Bias-up tested, held.
Having touched both bias signals overnight, this morning was likely to retest one — whether, or not, actually triggering its bias. 
So, being precluded from signaling inertia, consolidating around the 2601.75 open wasn’t likely to hold still. And it didn’t.
Surging before the opening 15 minutes lapsed was extended to a new high at 2605.50. Its 3-point reaction down to 2602.50 avoided triggering the 2604.50 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment. A test of its 2596.50 bias-down signal is in-play. That’s also last night’s low, for which there’s no bullish reason to retest.
Meanwhile, contrary signals are in-play. The bias parameter’s downside attraction may have to wait in line for a buy signal above 2603.25 that the open had triggered. Its pullback limit isn’t yet violated, despite having been probed 30 minutes earlier.
It’s too late to invalidate the no-bias by 10:30. Fresh highs would be “no-bias trending,” and doomed to failure. At least, required to retrace the 2604.50 bias-up signal. But back under 2602.25 would be entirely credible for the no-bias signal’s downside being fulfilled.
New chaRTroom Link
The chaRTroom link has changed. If its convenience link in any recent blog post is not working, you’re always able to find it updated when logging into Member-home… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2605.25 | 2604.50 |
| …would target | 2610.50 | 2610.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2597.00 | 2596.50 |
| …would target | 2591.75 | 2591.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Retesting last Wednesday’s 1.1860 open overnight before Thanksgiving waited for Friday morning before extending through last Wednesday’s 1.1880 high. And higher. Closing higher Monday would be problematic to resuming the decline before testing 1.2000.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s surge resolved likely Friday’s, not being confirming by a second consecutive higher close instead of dipping back down overnight. Unlike the prior failed surge, the overnight didn’t extend, and remained in proximity to resume the rally.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 17.11 buy signal had only been tested Wednesday, so its overnight reaction down fell to 16.95 support could have triggered a new downleg if broken. The pullback held, and recovering 17.11 would still be credible for extending the rally.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday failed yet again to extend another probe above 154-00. It yet again failed to reverse down, only forming a sideways “inside day.” That remains in proximity to Wednesday’s 154-24 prior high in case the rally wants to resume prior to testing 153-00 as support.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow sideways ranging around the 58.00 objective, which had been recovered Wednesday, finally resumed rallying ahead of Friday’s open. Fresh highs now target well above 61.00.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending down overnight was extended to gap down Friday. The distance of the open under all prior lows makes a bounce to “higher prior lows” unlikely, and unlikely to retrace and fill Friday’s gap to form a bottom.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The first hour’s signs of inertia around the 2600.50 open could have restrained any trending attempt Friday. Or, the influence could have doomed a trending attempt to failure. Gapping up to test new highs isn’t likely to sit still, and Friday’s session did not. So, the inertia signal’s latter influence enabled reactions down to 2600.00 after touching a new high at 2603.00.
The morning’s 2604.50 bias-up target wasn’t tested, and neither was it rejected. But being the product of a shortened-session, it does not become “unfinished business above.” It’s still likely to be attacked or tested anyway while probing above Friday’s range, so long as a pullback were to hold 2597.00 (+/- 1 tick). Holidays aren’t generally associated with extremes.
No pattern or other objective is currently in-play. Friday’s new trend high close doesn’t require another, since it was produced by a shortened session. But that doesn’t preclude probing a new trend extreme intraday. Meanwhile, the slightest misstep after trying to extend the rally could result in a sudden drop back to — and potentially through — two-week old lows.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Reminder: There is NO Saturday Review this weekend. The chaRTroom will re-open with Globex at 6:00 PM ET Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!