Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving!
The pre-Thanksgiving volume contraction had an effect on volatility. A pre-open surge touched the morning’s 2600.00 bias-up signal and only attacked it post-open. Reacting down choppily and relentlessly through the noon hour probed the overnight low by 3 ticks down to 2593.75. Firming into and out of the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes tried to trigger a buy signal above 2597.50.
Potential down to 2591.75 was left unresolved. It’s not “unfinished business below.” But it was the likely target of Thursday afternoon’s failed Ascending Triangle. And it would have been targeted as an offsetting test of the morning’s bias-up signal, which had been only attacked. Still not required, but its test would be likely — and potentially 2588.25 or lower — in reaction to any bearish global influence on Thursday night’s Globex.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still holding tests of 1.1760 support through Wednesday’s open all but ensures at least filling the gap back up to last Wednesday’s 1.1860 open before a durable break lower can begin.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s early test of the 1285.00 buy signal was finally probed Wednesday morning. The gap up extended sharply higher intraday to 1292.50, again requiring a second consecutive higher close Monday to confirm a rally underway.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s opening bounce had not extended that afternoon or overnight, but the reaction to Wednesday’s econ reports triggered another surge. Follow-through was limited, and held the 17.11 buy signal instead of triggering it.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s probe of fresh highs was still overlapping 154-02 resistance instead of exceeding it, which an overnight dip exploited by attacking the range’s lows. The gap down was recovered intraday back above 154-02, almost closing the door to extending the reaction down to 153-00.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The overnight rally fulfilled the retest of the two-week old 58.00 high. It wasn’t retested intraday until noon,despite gapping up. Its test held, and wasn’t rejected, suggesting further upside Monday.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s fresh close had already suggested Wednesday’s EIA report would not be greeted from a position of strength. Already gapping down Wednesday now prevents a durable recovery from forming prior to retesting the gap from above.
Mid-day Update… Drift.
Backing-and-filling with FOMC just ahead.
Gradually eking lower and lower has touched 2593.75 coming out of the noon hour. A blip-up to 2596.00 is behaving a little optimistically ahead of FOMC Minutes due out momentarily at the top of the hour. Not so optimistically as to confidently fade it. And not that FOMC Minutes create so much volatility.
At least, Minutes don’t normally trigger major moves. It’s not the actual policy statement. But today’s low volume environment might be exploited. Still having room down to 2591.75 or lower could be exploited, too. And so could the newly created room back up to intraday or overnight highs around 2600.00.
Meanwhile, note that if the reaction is limited in duration, then we’re likely to hold Market Wrap early — either at 2:22 or 3:03 ET.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 23, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: US markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Globex trades regularly overnight until noon Thursday, and then re-open at 6:00pm ET. The chaRTroom will be open throughout, and I’ll update if any price action merits it.
Early Globex close
12:00 PM ET
Regular Globex open
6:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2601.25 | 2600.00 |
| …would target | 2606.25 | 2605.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2593.00 | 2591.75 |
| …would target | 2585.75 | 2584.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.