Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2585.50 | 2584.50 |
| …would target | 2591.50 | 2590.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2577.00 | 2576.00 |
| …would target | 2571.75 | 2570.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s flat-to-higher open was no small accomplishment. Collapsing 9 points overnight had held two tests of the morning’s 2568.25 bias-down target. The session’s first minute ranged 2577.00-2580.25 to begin consolidating. And price eked higher to 2583.50 into the afternoon. Positive territory wasn’t probed intraday nearly so much has was negative territory overnight. But the recovery wasn’t rejected.
And not for lack of trying. A blip-up after entering the final hour touched 2584.00 and reversed back down to test 2580.25. Extending down was never impossible, but by then it was not credible. That is, even extending down much deeper would not have been sponsored by strong hands.
Gapping down Tuesday or breaking a relevant support through a relevant window can still trigger at least a retest of Sunday night’s lows. Seasonal bullishness isn’t yet overwhelming, so any meaningful dip must be aggressive. Meanwhile, the recovery back to last week’s highs or higher remains intact, however slowly it cares to unfold. Pre-holiday volume is starting to suffer, and recovery’s pace suffers along with it.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Sunday night on Germany politics held tests of 1.1760 as support. Bouncing sharply to 1.1826 filled the gap back to Friday’s close, and then collapsed back down to 1.1760. Closing any lower would retrace all of last week’s rally, for starters.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s gap up to 1280.50 and extension through the 1285.00 buy signal had extended to 1297.00, waiting for a second consecutive higher close to confirm. But Monday’s open gapped down and slid through the 1288.00 pullback limit to probe fresh relative lows down to 1274.00. Only closing back above 1288.00 without further delay would avoid targeting 1267.00 and possible fresh lows.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing above 17.30 Friday still needed pullbacks to hold 17.11 while awaiting confirmation of a asecond consecutive higher close. But Monday’s open gapped down back to 17.20 and collapsed back to last week’s lows attacking 16.80. Immediately recovering 16.95 would suggest the dip was absorbed, but otherwise 16.70 and 16.50 are targeted again.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing fresh recovery highs overnight up to 154-14 was retraced in time for Monday’s session to open back within the 3-day range under 154-00. The balance of the session hovered there narrowly, still not rejecting the overnight strength.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jan, with trades at a 20-cent premium to Dec] Gapping down Monday didn’t confirm Friday’s close above 56.20 as Thursday’s “lower prior highs” were attacked, but the gap back to Thursday’s close was narrowly avoided. Closing back above 56.20 would be credible for resuming the rally, especially if confirmation included recovering 56.85.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up and probing higher Friday held 3.11-3.12 resistance through the close, failing the breakout attempt. Gapping back down Monday under last week’s 3.05 lows .held through the close, allowing another chance to recover 3.11-3.12. It’s as much a requirement, to avoid extending the decline.
Mid-day Update… Mission creep.
Building on small bullish WedEX gain.
Consolidating at or under 2580.25 resistance persisted through the open, through the opening hour, and well into the morning bias environment.
Eking higher eventually touched 2583.50, clearly a post-open high, and confirmation that isolating the overnight probe under Friday’s low had gained traction.
A noon hour dip tested 2580.25 as support and recovered to fresh highs through the noon hour’s exit. But the afternoon’s 2584.50 bias-up signal has been attacked to within 1 point, but it did not trigger.
Being no-bias, the afternoon bias environment can still test 2584.50 or even probe it. But trending above it would be “no-bias trending” and require at least retracing its probe. RSIs are overbought currently, so a reaction down from here would likely recover.
Meanwhile, this morning’s bullish WedEX influence — such as it was — is irrelevant. Extending higher at all during the balance of the morning would be due to other attraction. So long as no pullback limit is violated, a retest of last week’s highs and higher remains likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 21, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is much more high-profile than it is influential to price action. Any noticeable reaction to the pre-open reports would likely be duplicated in reaction to the post-open report.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET