Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
There has been no bullish reason to revisit 2563.75 since its last test produced a fresh high. Breaking lower can still be avoided if the test is isolated. Wednesday morning’s test was isolated to the opening 15 minutes of volatility. At least, the air pocket below 2563.75 was contained within that window and to its 2557.50 objective. The 10:15 and 10:30 windows were testing 2563.75 as resistance.
Sellers weren’t rejected any more or any less than when Tuesday’s initial dip held its 2566.75-2568.50 objective and only only bounced to test 2570.00 instead of recovering it. Bounces are still possible, but they’ve been originating from a position of weakness, dooming them to failure.
A higher low at 2560.00 Thursday — instead of first rejecting a fresh low — could launch more than a bounce. But any initial selling must still be recovered above a relevant level through a relevant window to form a position of strength. Alternatively, gapping and trending higher through 2574.00-2577.00 would also be bullish, leaving a retest of this week’s lows outstanding until next week.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday threatened to confirm Tuesday’s breakout, but following-through only briefly then reversed down and filled the gap back to Tuesday’s close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Momentum from Tuesday’s close above 1280.50 extended overnight to test 1290.00 at Wednesday’s open. But the balance of the morning reversed back down well into negative territory to avoid confirming Tuesday’s reversal attempt.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially following-through with Tuesday’s rally into Wednesday’s open had probed 17.11 resistance by nearly a dime before reversing back down into negative territory, testing the 16.95 sell signal.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying overnight extended through Wednesday morning to probe the 154-02 bounce potential by 7 ticks, then reversed down to 153-12. Closing under 153-22 would be low enough to suggest the corrective bounce had ended already. Recovering to attack 154-02 helps to keep alive the bounce potential.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s test of the 55.35 pullback limit probed slightly lower overnight and into Wednesday’s open. But not closing under 55.35 held the pullback limit, and allows triggering a buy signal back above 56.00.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing slightly lower Wednesday morning initially reacted up from the 3.09 pullback limit to 3.15, but only to resolve down to Tuesday’s lows. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… The next bite at this apple.
Morning’s recovery on pause.
Not only was the 10-11 point post-open drop under 2566.00 retraced, but it was exceeded to touch 2571.50. That’s the morning’s bias-down signal, which was required to define the window’s upper-end, and did. Its 2566.00 bias-down target could have held, too, but it was tested as support into the noon hour.
2566.00 is being retested now into the afternoon bias environment. This afternoon’s 2565.25 bias-down signal was barely attacked, and not triggered.
It’s difficult to take too seriously any recovery attempt that hasn’t yet exceeded 2574.00 through a relevant timing window. Resuming the rally this afternoon would have no difficulty exceeding 2574.00. Breaking lower during the bias environment or coming out of it would be difficult to reverse up — let alone, to reverse up sufficiently — into the close. Possible, but difficult.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 16, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is unusually busy with plenty of econ reports. But few are high-profile, and only Philly Fed is influential. Any noticeable reaction to it could be duplicated by the other reports. The session’s several Fed speakers could be more influential, even if only to inhibit price action until their remarks are disseminated.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
9:10 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
1:10 PM ET
*Lael Brainard Speaks
3:45 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2574.75 | 2573.25 |
| …would target | 2581.00 | 2579.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2566.75 | 2565.25 |
| …would target | 2561.50 | 2560.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.