Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2589.00 | 2586.75 |
| …would target | 2595.00 | 2592.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2580.25 | 2578.00 |
| …would target | 2574.75 | 2572.50 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s rally was premature. It started from too shallow of a pullback, and too near the open. Dipping to 2566.75-2568.50 and then recovering 2570.00 would have trapped intraday shorts to refuel longs. Post-open weakness also would have delayed the recovery leg until it could blend into the noon hour’s timing window and extend into the afternoon.
Dipping only to attack 2570.00, only pre-open, and surging through the first hour, didn’t attract reinforcements. Eking higher into a late surge up to 2585.50 was retraced back under the opening surge’s 2582.25 high for no net gain.
Monday’s rally did gain some traction. Exiting the afternoon bias environment above the noon hour’s high was the setup, and extending to fresh session highs through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window was the confirmation. If not already extended higher into the close, the traction can offer bullish context that enables a recovery after trending down overnight.
Overbought RSIs at Monday’s high require an eventual retest. That could also offer bullish context to recover from an overnight dip. Retesting Monday’s high already overnight would become vulnerable to reversing down, somewhat similarly to Sunday night’s initial rally.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s narrow ranging up to 1.1700 didn’t gain any traction to extend the bounce, and back under 1.1635 would resume the decline.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s late break under the 1275.50 sell signal was still overlapping it. Monday’s gap up above Friday afternoon’s 1277.00 highs is trying to invalidate the break, but must still close above 1280.50 to be credible.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up extended to test 17.05 which must hold as resistance to maintain the 16.95 sell signal that is targeting and 16.70 and 16.50.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s inside day began by gapping up to attack the 153-00 sell signal that had triggered Friday. the balance of the session drifted back down to unchanged. Immediately recovering 153-00 Tuesday would be credible for reversing up to test 154-02, but closing under 152-00 could target a retest of month-old lows under 151-00.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The narrow ranging that had begun last Monday afternoon persisted through Monday afternoon, momentarily piercing the range’s 56.45 low, still having room down to 55.35 before signaling momentum reversing down.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down several cents at Monday’s open was soon recovered to pierce Thursday and Friday’s 3.21 highs by 2 cents. That didn’t extend, and dipping back down toward the open’s gap at the multi-session low. Closing beyond the range Tuesday would be a high-confidence breakout, likely to extend in that direction.
Mid-day Update… Spent.
Opening surge has yet to improve.
The open’s dip to 2566.75-2568.50 would have trapped shorts and refueled longs. Rallying straight up from there would have likely extended through the noon hour. But the open didn’t dip. And the pre-open dip held 2570.00. Too few shorts were trapped and longs weren’t terribly refueled.
Holding a test of this morning’s 2574.00 bias-down signal through 10:15 was still bullish. It put into play an offsetting test of the 2582.75 bias-up signal. And that happens to be the recovery’s high. Now having hovered shallowly through the noon hour, another break higher is likely.
At least, an attempt to break higher is likely. This afternoon is also a no-bias environment, and a test of its 2585.00 bias-up signal would likely hold. It could also push price back down. Otherwise, only breaking back under 2579.50 would be credible during the bias environment for launching a reversal of this morning’s rally.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 14, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s pre-open Fed speaker may affect price action, especially if it’s already trending as his comments have done historically. The pre-open PPI is also reliably influential to price action.
Charles Evans Speaks
3:05 AM ET
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
8:15 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Charles Evans Speaks
3:00 AM ET