Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2585.50 | 2582.75 |
| …would target | 2590.50 | 2588.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2576.25 | 2574.00 |
| …would target | 2571.25 | 2568.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday night’s 61.8% retracement of its afternoon recovery had presented an opportunity. Friday morning could rally back up to Thursday’s close or the overnight higher or higher, but the opportunity had to be exploited early. And it wasn’t.
That left the door open to resuming the overnight decline. Whether as a deeper correction of Thursday afternoon’s recovery, or to resume Thursday morning’s decline, a bias-down signal would have been very productive. But noN-bias triggered instead, and several attempts to trend down failed.
The afternoon bias environment’s probe above the morning’s highs wasn’t any more reliable. Its bias-up signal quickly contained the brief enthusiasm. Which sellers also failed to exploit, like the morning’s failed recovery opportunity.
We’ll discuss the bigger picture at this weekend’s Saturday Review, along with possible paths and strategies for the new week. We’ll also do instant chart analysis of any stock requests. I’ll send the link in the morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Flat-to-higher ranging up to 1.1700 Friday didn’t yet reject the bounce, which would fail by closing back under 1.1635.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down slightly to 1284.00 at Friday’s open eventually plunged $10 to test the 1275.00 sell signal. Although that did fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s close and neutralize its attraction, it undermines the recovery potential, which must close back above 1285.00 to avoid a deeper pullback.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
There was already no bullish reason to attack 16.95 let alone to test it Thursday. Bouncing up to 17.11 into Friday’s open resolved down sharply by plunging to 16.80. A close above 17.11is required to avoid next testing 16.70 and 16.50.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Thursday to the 153-22 pullback limit and holding it didn’t prevent trending down overnight and gapping down to the 153-00 sell signal and trending down to 152-02. Closing under 152-00 would put into play “lower prior highs” at 151-04 and potentially also new lows under 150-16.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow ranging Thursday continued to not extend Wednesday’s intraday surge and collapse, further suggesting that its 57.90 peak will at least be retested. But fresh relative lows Friday morning suggest a pullback to 55.35 first, with potential for being stopped short at 55.70.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s narrowly ranging reaction to the morning’s EIA report persisted into the weekend. Monday’s pattern has no specific likelihood in this setup..
Mid-day Update… Stuck.
Choppy morning gets nowhere.
A noN-bias environment often sucks volatility out of the market until the timing window lapses. This morning’s noN-bias environment certainly didn’t trend, but it was volatile. And the entire morning elapsed without breaking in either direction.
Not rejecting the gap down kept the door open to extending lower through the morning. This being a Friday, if the morning had held tests of an actual prior low, then an afternoon rally would become very likely. But this morning only held tests of a retracement calculation, so there’s only potential for an afternoon rally.
Room to test this afternoon’s 2580.25 by a point should not be confused with trending. And the door remains open to extending lower into the close, especially if 2580.25 were to tested and already reacting down when the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30. Otherwise, trending today isn’t required, but recovering 2581.50 could extend higher into the close, instead.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 13, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s calendar tries to maintain the prior week’s tradition of thin calendar and thinner influence. The week does get busier and higher-profile after Monday.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET