Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Filling the gap Tuesday back up to Thursday’s 1.1685 close was enough to push price back down into Wednesday’s open. But the open’s lows held, and didn’t resume the decline, so a bigger bounce can’t yet be discounted.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight strength attacked 2582.00. Its reaction down Wednesday held 2577.50 as support, but still needs to recover 2580.50 through a close to launch a new rally leg.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite not yet extending down to its 16.50 target, overnight strength probed fresh relative highs attacking 17.05. A post-open dip Wednesday was recovered to higher highs intraday. Closing above 17.11 is still the minimum requirement to suggest momentum may be reversing up.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s bounce to the 152-20 resistance reacted down into Wednesday’s open. But touching its 152-00 sell signal reacted up to fresh highs through the morning, and greeted the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement testing 153-00. A second consecutive higher close would be credible for extending higher, but back under 152-00 would target fresh lows.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Holding the shallow 53.88 pullback limit Tuesday maintained upside momentum, which probed the 54.15 objective overnight and extended higher Wednesday to 55.22. Dipping into the afternoon tested 53.88 through the close.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap down to fresh lows and session-long downtrend compensated for Monday’s ineffectual optimism that prevented fulfilling the session’s fresh low requirement. Bouncing overnight was similarly punished by reversing pre-open to trend down to fresh lows through the morning.
Mid-day Update… Energy conservation.
Post-open surge’s reaction is extended on news.
Dipping through the open down to 2580.00-2581.50 was recovered to fresh highs at 2585.50, forming an anchor that would likely attract price back up in case of reversing down. We’ll see. 
Overbought RSIs at the high encouraged a reaction down that ultimately broke under 2580.00, and extended down to 2575.00 by noon.
More so, the noon hour’s exit broke even lower to 2571.50. Its catalyst appears to have been news of a possible attack in London similar to yesterday afternoon’s New York tragedy. If so, then like yesterday, the selling is artificial and likely to be trapped. The question is when.
The headline’s reaction enabled triggering the 2574.00 bias-down signal. It was recovered by 1 tick at 1:30 to essentially invalidate the signal. That’s much less decisive than I like to see for invalidation purposes. Firming only another point since then hasn’t helped. And that’s despite the London incident being labeled NOT terror-related.
Meanwhile, the 2:00pm ET FOMC policy statement is just ahead. Attracting reinforcements did prove difficult ahead of FOMC and after the overnight rally. The 2585.50 high’s overbought RSIs don’t require its retest, but they can still be retested. And the 2590.50 objective remains intact. A bullish resolution is likely so long as the news is greeted from above 2571.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 2, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: After the early-morning Bank of England policy statement, none of Thursday’s econ reports has a reliable track record for influencing price action. Some are high-profile, but the afternoon’s Fed speaker will be the next likely external influence. Meanwhile, afternoon volatility may evaporate ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report.
*BOE Policy statement
7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
12:20 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Raphael Bostic Speaks
6:15 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2585.75 | 2582.75 |
| …would target | 2590.25 | 2587.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2577.00 | 2574.00 |
| …would target | 2567.50 | 2564.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN INVALIDATED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Anchored.
Open’s uptrend entrenches the rally.
Pulling back from the 2584.00 overnight high greeted the open at this morning’s 2581.50 bias-up target. Its reaction down had room down to 2580.00 without even threatening to reverse momentum. Touching 2580.00 reacted up to fresh high new highs at 2585.50.
Exiting the opening 15 minutes of volatility above its opening print formed uptrending. If not extended higher this morning, then that serves as an anchor to attract a dip’s recovery. Exceeding the 2581.50 bias-up target through 10:15 would have renewed the bias-up signal, but it was being touched to within 1 tick at 10:15.
There’s no grace period for renewing the bias-up signal. This is still a bias-up environment. A deeper pullback could test this morning’s 2576.00 bias-up signal as support. Meanwhile, back above 2584.00 would renew the rally’s momentum — although it’s difficult to attract reinforcements after gapping up so much when the FOMC statement is getting closer.