Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2565.75 | 2563.50 |
| …would target | 2571.25 | 2569.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2557.00 | 2554.75 |
| …would target | 2551.75 | 2549.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday began by retracing a gap up to touch Wednesday afternoon’s 2557.50 high as support. The session ended by testing Wednesday afternoon’s 2556.00 pivotal high as support. Both tests were recovered back into the range, not back above a relevant resistance. There’s no evidence of Thursday’s range resolving up.
The later dip was barely during the cash session. It originated after having come within 3 minutes of the cash session close. Its recovery was even more detached, coming entirely after the cash session close.
The late recovery was substantial, nearly 7 points. It was also relevant, overlapping the 2561.75 opening print — which the final hour had otherwise narrowly avoided doing. The post-close bounce was almost in time to signal a compelling “hold-short.” Gapping down and trending lower Friday morning is still a risk. Gapping up could render that downside risk moot and marginalize sellers for the day.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s bounce had created a little more room to extend the corrective bounce, but Thursday morning’s ECB statement and Draghi’s press conference triggered a gap down that extended sharply lower to fresh lows through the morning. The 1.1760 support was probed to its lowest levels yet at 1.1687.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight to attack 1284.00 was retraced to range most of the morning within 1277.50-1280.50, but breaking lower into the noon hour probed under Tuesday’s lows to test 1267.50. The bullish scenario now relies on forming a Double Bottom with the Employment Situation report’s 3-week old low.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight firming only tested 17.00 as resistance but resumed ranging just under 17.00 intraday Thursday morning, then breaking lower to test 16.75. A recovery still relies on closing above 17.11.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming into Thursday’s open only tested 151-22 before reacting back down into Wednesday’s range. At least an eventual lower close is likely outstanding, although meanwhile there is potential for a bigger corrective bounce up to 152-22.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday firmed to attack 52.70 which pierced recent highs, still targeting at least unfinished business above at 53.00.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeted Thursday’s EIA from a position of weakness, having triggered its 2.96 sell signal targeting 2.84. Gapping down to 2.87 fluctuated there through the session.
Mid-day Update… You don’t see that every quarter.
Choppy ranging ahead of three high-profile earnings.
Perhaps the session has been contained, but not necessarily paralyzed. The morning’s post-open attack on 2564.00 reacted down to 2557.25. Its recovery up to 2565.00 was retraced to fulfill the consequences of its no-bias trending above 2561.50 and 2558.50. All before the noon hour.
The noon hour contained a knee-jerk reaction to a negative headline about tax reform talks. But only a knee-jerk reaction, as price action remains contained within a narrowing range.
Perhaps it’s just anxiousness ahead of post-close earnings due from AMZN, GOOGL, and MSFT. That’s normal, but usually not until the afternoon. It seems to be the inverse today, with a lot of energy being expended to contain trending attempts, instead of no energy being expended to even try trending.
The ranging may yet persist into the close, as it normally does the afternoon ahead of these three earnings (let alone all three on the same day). Another break higher would still be credible for extending. But the only “unfinished business” outstanding is below from this morning at 2550.50, keeping alive the attraction back into yesterday’s range, and the potential for probing under yesterday’s low.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 27, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s GDP is high-profile, but has no track record for influencing price action. The post-open Consumer Sentiment number does often generate a price reaction, and similarly inhibits price action ahead of its release.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET