Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still firming ahead of Wednesday’s open continued firming intraday. Thursday’s ECB policy statement is not being greeted from a position of weakness, albeit having bounced optimistically short of filling an outstanding gap.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Retesting Tuesday’s lows overnight became very volatile Wednesday, probing a fresh pullback low and eventually recovering to 1280.50 as resistance. Almost any early strength Thursday would be credible for extending.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
An overnight blip-down pierced Tuesday’s lows, which already were challenging the bottoming attempt by not closing decisively above 17.00. There was no follow-through, but not closing back above 17.00 undermines the bottoming pattern.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s drop back to 151-18 support only held there instead of rejecting it, and trended down sharply overnight to probe the Employment Situation report’s 151-08 reaction low down to 150-14. Being the second consecutive lower close from the Fri-Mon multi-session range, at least an eventual third lower close is required before a durable bottom can again try forming.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Shallow overnight weakness still greeted Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of strength. Spending the entire session in negative territory still held high enough to be only an “inside day” from which any initial strength Thursday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two days of hovering at or above the 2.96 sell signal broke lower overnight, gapping down Wednesday on the way to its 2.84 target where a better bottoming attempt could form. But Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… That’s gonna leave a mark.
Too deep to be temporary, but what about a temporary bounce?
The open’s slide from 2565.00 extended substantially lower, testing and attacking all sorts of relevant prior lows down to 2541.50. 
But it may be done, or at least bottoming. Maybe. Entering and exiting the noon hour under 2554.00 has created a weak base to try launching bounces.
The Employment Situation report’s intraday low was 2541.50. Reacting up from touching it during the noon hour is very likely only an obligatory bounce, i.e. temporary. That bounce could extend, back up to 2554.00 or higher. It just touched 2550.00.
Meanwhile, this afternoon’s 2546.75 bias-down signal just avoided triggering. Its 2540.75 was attacked to within 3 ticks, so it wouldn’t have become “unfinished business below.” But the target’s test would be likely if 2546.75 doesn’t hold through 1:30. Back under 2546.00 at any time would target fresh lows.
Retesting the highs before probing lower to 2536.00 is now unlikely. Not without closing at least above 2563.75. And probing lower could extend much deeper than 2536.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Oct 26, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Thursday’s otherwise busy calendar is reliably influential to price action except for the worthy exception of the ECB policy statement and its subsequent press conference by Chair Draghi. The pre-open Jobless Claims is at least high-profile. Since last week’s number was a recent historical extreme — if not also a surprise — there is some potential for price reaction. And any reaction to the pre-open report would likely be duplicated by post-open reports. GOOGL, AMZN and MSFT report earnings post-close.
ECB policy statement / Draghi presser
7:00 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Neel Kashkari Speaks
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2557.00 | 2554.75 |
| …would target | 2562.50 | 2560.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2549.00 | 2546.75 |
| …would target | 2543.00 | 2540.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Nice try.
Open fails to exploit its isolation.
Rallying this morning required the open to maintain its recovery back above yesterday’s 2563.50-2564.25 lows. Isolating the overnight lows, or not, would be likely to extend in that direction. That’s where the open was greeted, but post-open action stopped 1 point short of 2566.00, whose recovery through 9:45 was part of the bullish setup.
Reacting down through the first half-hour probed the overnight low down to 2559.25. The 10:15 bias timing window was within a few ticks of fulfilling the 2557.50 bias-down target. Oversold RSIs at 2556.00 require its retest, suggesting that a premature rally effort would fail.
The first hour has already touched 2566.00. And there’s room down to 2554.00 before even threatening to reverse the trend down. Back above 2560.25 would start to signal this morning’s sell-off being recovered, regardless of “unfinished business below” at the low’s oversold RSIs. Regardless, closing above 2562.00 would suggest that sellers are done.