Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2555.75 | 2554.00 |
| …would target | 2560.75 | 2559.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2549.75 | 2548.00 |
| …would target | 2544.75 | 2543.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday morning’s bias environment exit did at least probe back under 2553.25. But it didn’t follow-through into the noon hour’s exit, or under 2550.00. Fluctuating around 2553.25 through the session kept the market in proximity to reverse down. That vulnerability would diminish the later and later that it wasn’t exploited, and ultimately produce only a temporary dip back down to the open’s 2550.50 low. Even after bouncing back into the close, a new trend extreme close on a Friday was avoided. So, the rally isn’t entrenched, but “unfinished business above” is left outstanding at 2556.75 and 2557.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
I’LL DISCUSS MORE ABOUT THIS RANGE, AND IDENTIFY RELEVANT SETUPS AND PRICE LEVELS, AT THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW. LOOK FOR LOGIN INFO BY MORNING EMAIL.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Blipping-down on Friday morning’s data barely attacked the 1.1830 pullback limit. and was reversed up to a fresh high for the current correctioN. The balance of the session drifted back down, not triggering a sell signal, but undermining potential up to 1.1970.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite Thursday having held the test of Tuesday’s 1286.50 high, the rally extended overnight and Friday morning probed fresh highs up to 1300.00. Rather than react down, that was extended higher intraday to probe 1305.00 and to all but suggest the bottom had completed already.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs overnight extended higher Friday morning, positioned to close a dime above 17.30 and reverse the trend back up officially.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s close above 152-20 and 153-02 was exploited by surging in reaction to Friday morning’s econ reports. That was extended nearly 1 point to probe above 1540-04 Closing above 153-14 is the final confirmation that the trend has reversed back up, making a corrective dip down to 151-18,.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s gap down had originated from a position of strength, which was proved by an overnight rally that probed above Wednesday’s prior high. Intraday action settled back to test prior support, but the recovery attempt remains valid.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending the corrective bounce overnight attacked its 3.04 potential objective to within 1 cent. Its reaction down tested what had recently been a buy signal.
Mid-day Update… Holding up.
No collapse yet, but not extending either.
Exiting the morning’s bis environment and/or entering the noon hour under either 2553.25 or also 2550.00 would have been likely to trend down sharply during the afternoon.
The bias environment exit did probe back under 2553.25. But not a lot, and not for long. No lower low has developed, but neither has a higher high. This morning’s 2555.50 high has been touched again, but not pierced.
The vulnerability to trending back down remains alive so long as the afternoon bias environment isn’t exited in rally mode. Otherwise, there’s no requirement to extend up, only a vulnerability.