Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s open was greeted by overnight action having trended down relentlessly. The open didn’t reject it, so sellers were not marginalized despite not extending down. In fact, the 2549.00 bias-down signal held its test as support, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2557.00 bias-up signal. The bounce peaked upon filling the gap back up to Wednesday’s 2553.25 close, which was also Tuesday’s high. So, again, never recovering positive territory kept sellers from becoming marginalized. Meanwhile, the gap’s obligatory, natural resistance — and a negative knee-jerk reaction to who is being interviewed as Yellen’s replacement — pushed price back down to fresh session lows at 2546.25.
Closing under the morning’s low would have gained traction for sellers. For once. Despite the distributive action above, sellers have failed to close under relevant lows. Thursday was another one of those failures. Probing under the morning’s 2547.25 low didn’t hold, and was recovered through the close. The door remains open to probing fresh highs — presumably the 2557.00 unfinished business above. And any fresh high remains vulnerable to reversing back down intraday. The ongoing significance of inflationary data on the Fed’s action plan makes Friday morning’s barrage of consumer data capable of swinging price around in circles. So, multiple directions are possible intraday, especially if the open is trending in one direction or the other.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fluctuating narrowly Thursday keeps alive the corrective bounce targeting 1.1970, with room meanwhile down to 1.1830 before resuming the decline.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Testing 1300.00 overnight was retraced enough for Thursday’s open only to overlap Tuesday’s 1296.50 high. It was still being overlapped through the afternoon, and needs to hold as resistance for a near-term pullback to remain likely.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing higher overnight was unable to extend higher intraday, consolidating within the 17.11-17.20 range. A fresh high intraday Friday is possible in this pattern while still maintaining potential for one more corrective dip.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming overnight nevertheless spent much of Thursday still overlapping 152-20, before the afternoon trended back up to test this week’s 153-02 high. Closing above 152-20 does help to greet Friday’s barrage of econ reports and Fed speakers from a position of strength, which might be called upon to help absorb an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down to test 151-18 as support.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Thursday under Wednesday’s lows extended down to the 50.25 buy signal. Its first intraday reaction up was retraced only up to 50.75 before dipping back down to 50.25, keeping alive the upside momentum — which is likely anyway, since Thursday’s EIA was greeted from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping back up above 2.89 Thursday all but invalidated Wednesday’s close under it. Invalidated, in that the EIA reaction extended higher to test 2.99, and has potential for extending to 3.04. All but, in that the news was greeted from a position of weakness, which should limit its upside and still fill the gap back down to Monday’s 2.83 close.
Mid-day Update… Clinging to the high.
No new bias-up, but an attraction above.
This morning’s bias environment had recovered up to 2552.25. Lapsing broke higher into the noon hour up to 2553.25. Being both Tuesday and Wednesday’s high, its resistance is likely only obligatory. So far, so true, as the noon hour’s dip to 2550.50 has been recovered back up to 2553.25.
This afternoon’s bias-up signal didn’t trigger. Neither did no-bias. This is a noN-bias environment that isn’t restrained by the bias signal or attracted to the bias target.
As it happens, this morning’s 2557.00 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.” And it remains in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 2550.25 as support.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 13, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Almost every event and report on Friday’s econ calendar is both high-profile AND reliably influential to price action. Any noticeable reaction to either pre-open report is likely to be duplicated by the post-open Consumer Sentiment. Meanwhile, 3-4 Fed speakers keep the focus on data.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
8:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
9:25 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
11:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks (?)
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2554.75 | 2552.75 |
| …would target | 2559.00 | 2557.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2549.50 | 2547.50 |
| …would target | 2543.00 | 2541.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.