Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Overnight detachment again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s session left the chart with another new high close, with no unfinished business above — other than coming closer to significant attraction at 2541.50. open was greeted by a narrow flat-to-lower ranging. Post-open action blipped-down momentarily to a fresh low at 2529.00, but the morning bias environment repeatedly tested 2532.00 resistance. The bias environment launched a rally to 2538.00. The afternoon’s reaction down attacked the morning’s highs, which held as support through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Last night’s 2-point range has been as narrow as the prior night. Narrower, not including Tuesday’s late 2-point dip lower. That may yet develop. Meanwhile, the two ranges differ in their bias — last night isn’t flat-to-lower but flat-to-higher, almost imperceptibly until the past hour. This morning’s 2537.00 bias-up signal was just touched.
If, then…
Tuesday’s new high close was similar to Wednesday, having left no unfinished business above. But it differed by not creating any upside attraction intraday. Being an inflection point, the morning’s buy signal above 2533.00 doesn’t qualify. No bias objective above had been outstanding, and no bias-up was triggered. Normally, this might reflect strong underlying demand, except the move was limited to the cusp between windows (bias environment lapsing into the noon hour). Extending higher later would have reflected reinforcements. And so would extending higher this morning, if maintained. But extending higher only temporarily (then closing negative under 2535.50) would qualify today’s higher high as upward momentum failing. Not even probing a higher high but closing under yesterday’s 2529.00 low would signal momentum reversing down. Avoiding such disqualifiers has kept alive this rally leg for more than a week. That has been done by continually creating upside attractions. A lot of that will be undone quickly if new highs has begun inhibiting new accumulation.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2535.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2537.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2538.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Yo it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market or quick housekeeping note at the top here I will be unavailable during in this is going to be unknown really during the final hours of Market at the very least we will not have a market wrap post close updates will be late tonight and the that includes the bias signals I will record the market wrap but it won’t be at the clothes that’s what’ll be available late tonight as well and I hope to get that out of the way but I’m not sure that it’ll be at the date that’s right the time that it’s only published available so we’ll see on that and there will be about an hour away from the screens before being in front of Greenville more time available range open this was the overnight range and it just started dipping lowered ultimately did the little bit lower than a couple hours of the open even tried it wasn’t a little lower and rejected that signal avoided so that wasn’t broken but not until the so and no higher closed above the morning that’s put into play to get up here no accumulation down below that targets are met any way that could be if we don’t know until we get the defining action and that is either the afternoon could have closed higher it didn’t today without backing off could close higher it may or weave know that we find out that is that it’s not strong hands that broke above Tuesday’s eyes yesterday but we can’t because a closed under under its morning’s low didn’t do that today could probe yesterday’s high trying to extend that rally that hasn’t been rejected but failed to close Above It Could Happen 4150 2541 50 is the next high resistance is significant resistance or even without probing a fresh High today’s session could just run down 4150 doesn’t have to be tested Trend down and close under this morning’s low where at 6 and going on seven sessions of higher closes not being rejected pure uptrending but mostly are essentially on sessions that have been working their way toward some unfinished business above their for an attraction or creating intraday attraction like a bicep triggering a bias up and then get him there yes it was first day too didn’t do that but extended higher anyway and by the way extended higher I should point out during the noon hour I’m sorry into the noon hour during first of all as I said the breakup of the bicep signal when the happened when the bias environment started lapsing it also ended pretty much when the bias environment and it is well and into the noon hour the new not of the buy some ornaments high in fact as it was lapsing call 836-5037 that’s pretty much to find the highs except for this blip up during the otherwise irrelevant noon hour so getting some indications that need to be met either by offsetting the potential negative aspects or that will confirm the negative aspects but they are negative aspects and I should also point out with the three minutes that there is a reaction down there is unfinished business at the earliest outstanding or take it back to Friday Friday morning as trending that broke about 8:25 or 9:50 that hasn’t prevented it but it has created and left outstanding and that’s just the beginning because 6 if I were to fail and remember what we talked about this Saturday the Saturday review and that is Rally attempt in the question a couple weeks ago in other words waiting for that wild that sector starts or before that sector or complex gets all of its ducks in a row but really anything short of 12 87-88 is suspicious as just being a collective nouns Tuesday but that didn’t satisfy the outstanding requirement for at least one more lower close that’s under the last week’s was not just probing under it in today and that inhibited yesterday’s Gap up from extending which isn’t inhibiting this morning or overnight from bouncing again but we’re going to look for clothes it’s not something I would be short for but something I would consider buying upon it being reacted to the next morning or the next day just got to wait for that because of the strong potential if not likelihood or even requirement for a fresh loaf close I’m just not able to call this an accumulative area or use this for accumulation a less 15314 is recovered close above 15314 I’ll look at it and see if it comes from closing 5314 but until then just just an observer of crude oil and this morning Natural Gas but we do have it on Monday and confirm Tuesday and that allowed or enabled yesterday’s bouncy essays open touched and the reaction down neutralize the Gap back to Monday’s open that would have required being filled and is now not 3 until this evening review this weekend .
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2539.75 | 2537.00 |
| …would target | 2544.25 | 2541.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2533.25 | 2530.50 |
| …would target | 2528.00 | 2525.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s late-morning rally to fresh highs almost came from nowhere. Overnight action was flat-to-lower, the opposite direction from the two prior sessions. Post-open action had extended the overnight dip to 2529.00. Initially. But the morning bias environment ultimately ranged flat-to-higher.
Wednesday afternoon’s failed opportunity to reverse the intraday trend couldn’t have been more productive. Any more productive — probing any lower under 2532.75 — wouldn’t have failed its reversal attempt, and would have ended the day in negative territory. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-higher, until retracing 61.8% of the noon hour’s peak.
Closing above 2532.00 undermines the room for noise above Tuesday morning’s bias-up signal, which was allowable while detouring away from fulfilling its 2520.25 objective.
There’s no less vulnerability Thursday to breaking lower immediately and trending down intraday. No “unfinished business above” is outstanding to ensure recovering, although a retest of Wednesday’s 2538.00 high would target 2541.50.
Meanwhile, we’re starting to track a potential Up/Down-crash setup. Six consecutive sessions of closing higher is stretching the rubber band to either snap back down or else surge sharply higher. At least 10 sessions are needed for the setup. An 8-day streak from Sep 11 stopped short.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s intraday bounce was mostly retraced through the close, but its high was already probed overnight ahead of Wednesday’s open. That test was also reversed into the afternoon, still likely to trend under 1.1760 and lower.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight from Tuesday’s temporary intraday probe under Monday’s low stopped short of triggering a buy signal like 1287.00. All of the rally was retraced intraday.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The decline’s likely 16.50 objective remains outstanding, despite surging pre-open above 16.80. The attraction below helped to absorb Wednesday’s pre-open strength, and to retrace it down to 16.55.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing into Wednesday’s open was still a half-point short of the 153-14 buy signal, while further delaying the eventual third lower close still required by last week’s confirmed breakout. The early bounce was reversed into negative territory.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight had potential to extend Tuesday’s break lower that had otherwise held its test of “lower prior highs” as support. Holding 49.75 all but requires recovering without further delay to avoid a deeper decline.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Overnight firming was shallow, but Wednesday’s open surged higher to 3.00, touching “higher prior lows.” Its reaction down to Monday’s 2.97 open neutralizes its attraction, and allows a bottom to form.
Mid-day Update… Late stretch, late failure.
Reacting down from noon hour high.
The open did not extend higher. Which wasn’t surprising since yesterday’s rally was stretched by weak-handed sponsorship.
But a mini-plunge to 2529.00 didn’t extend down, despite the vulnerability.
The morning’s 2532.75 bias-up signal was recovered, and then probed when the bias environment came within view of lapsing. That extended higher into the 2538.00 noon hour high. Overbought RSIs at the high — if 1-minute RSI can even be considered overbought there — don’t require a retest since that was during the noon hour.
The afternoon 2536.50 bias-up signal was tested, but it failed to trigger. An offsetting test of the 2531.00 bias-down signal isn’t required. But reacting down into the bias environment is testing 2533.00.
If this dip isn’t absorbed, then it should at least probe negative territory under 2532.00. Closing in negative territory would be likely. Closing under the morning’s 2529.00 low would even form a bearish Pivot Reversal. Otherwise, back above 2536.00 would all but ensure extending to 2541.50.