Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday had fulfilled the decline’s requirement to completely retrace the last upleg from 1.1845. Wednesday extended the decline anyway, coming attacking its 1.1760 next lower target.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing Tuesday off of 1298.50 “lower prior highs” was followed naturally Wednesday by gapping down through 1293.50 prior lows and probing lower to attack 1285.00. Attractions down to 1280.00 are in-play so long as Thursday doesn’t close positive.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows overnight extended down Wednesday morning to attack prior lows, next targeting the 16.50 area.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Repeatedly holding 154-30 resistance finally reacted down Tuesday night, and aggressively. Gapping down to the 153-14 prior low probed ranged choppily intraday at or under last week’s low, needing to hold for the retest for a bottom to form.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
API and EIA weren’t greeted from the position of strength of a confirmed breakout. But reactions to the news items didn’t extend down, suggesting that Monday’s breakout intends to try extending again even without confirmation.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday created a gap back down to Tuesday’s close that will want to be retested. Trending up so early to already test the 2.98 bounce limit suggests its test is sponsored by weak hands. Thursday’s EIA is not being greeted from a position of strength, so a knee-jerk reaction up would have to close aboev 3.02 to be credible for extending higher.
Mid-day Update… No third bite.
Gap filled, probed… held?
This morning’s slide back under the 2499.50 bias-up signal extended to 2493.00. Its probe into negative territory under 2495.50 was recovered through the bias environment exit. The noon hour barely avoided turning negative again.
And now the bias afternoon environment is being greeted back up at 2499.50. Its retest would have been required had this morning triggered no-bias before probing under it. Retesting it anyway isn’t predictive, but reversing down again from its retest would be bearish.
So, back under 2497.50 would get one opportunity to resume the decline. Extending above 2501.50 as the bias environment begins lapsing would suggest no other dip is coming. Greeting Trump’s 3:20 tax reform speech from beyond either would be likely to extend in that direction.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 28, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Brexit talks resume before Thursday’s open. The session’s calendar is busy in its own right, especially with four pre-open reports being released simultaneously. Yet despite the quantity and two of them being high-profile, none has a reliable track record for influencing price action. The post-open Fed speaker may have more impact, except that her posture is well-known.
Eric Rosengren Speaks
Wed 7:00 PM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2503.50 | 2501.00 |
| …would target | 2509.50 | 2507.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2496.00 | 2493.50 |
| …would target | 2490.50 | 2488.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Early birds get worms again.
Opening rally is reversed.
The third time’s a charm, when you’re monitoring for it. That’s the case with this morning’s third consecutive rejection of initial optimism. It’s already responsible for a 9-point slide.
The overnight rally from 2495.50 had reacted down from touching yesterday’s 2501.25 pre-open.
Resuming the rally greeted the open at 2503.50, instantly fulfilling the prior two sessions’ “unfinished business above.” Extending higher to 2505.00 also tested this morning’s 2504.00 bias-up target.
But the bias-up target had yet to be triggered. Which it wasn’t. Reacting down overlapped the 2499.50 bias-up signal at both 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. And like the two prior sessions, price action within the next 3 minutes was breaking under the bias signal that had otherwise held through 10:30.
The reversal has touched 2496.00. Attacking yesterday’s close to within 2-3 ticks is now reacting up. Nothing requires actually filling the gap, but oversold RSIs at 2496.00 undermine the reaction’s sponsorship.
Recall that Monday and Tuesday’s rejected optimism each had left outstanding “unfinished business above.” Not today. Even if bias-up had triggered, its target was already met. And the unfinished business above was already neutralized. Recovering like the prior two sessions is much less assured.