Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s plunge was further retraced Thursday night, testing its 1.2030 corrective bounce limit up to 1.2059. Dipping into the afternoon stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back down to Thursday’s close, still likely to resume the decline.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The overnight reaction to new N.Korea missile threats was muted, suggesting that pessimism remains alive and well. A recovery attempt wouldn’t yet have been credible, anyway. But fresh lows into the weekend in Gold are rarely a bottom.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging overnight around 17.00 was even narrower intraday Friday. The consolidation of Wednesday’s break may have been extended as a weekend hedge against missiles flying, but has no other reason to avoid extending the decline.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming overnight to retest 154-16 still stopped short of the 154-30 buy signal that would reverse the trend up. So, the door remains open to a more thorough test of the decline’s 153-14 maximum pullback limit to form a more durable bottom.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The narrowest intraday range since last Friday, which had also developed around 50.50, didn’t suggest the current basing is inclined to launch a new rally leg.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s plunge to 2.95 didn’t extend down Friday, but neither was it rejected, let alone recovered. And avoiding an extension down to 2.84 all but required a quick reversal back up above 3.02. Having avoided a second consecutive lower close, recovering 3.02 through Monday morning could still be credible for extending higher.
Mid-day Update… Low volume blues.
Narrower range than yesterday.
Thursday morning’s post-open plunge had been productive, triggering bias-down and creating an attraction below. That initial shake-up didn’t force its corrective bounce to resolve intraday. At least, not any more than slipping slightly into the close.
Last night’s plunge certainly hasn’t forced its corrective bounce to resolve. Not, yet. Perhaps this afternoon will slip into the close, too, like yesterday. Unlike yesterday, not only slightly. Slipping into the close for a second consecutive session — ahead of the weekend’s illiquidity, and with support chipped away — could be substantial.
The most relevant question about an afternoon slide wouldn’t be how deep, but how soon. Strong-handed sponsorship would make itself obvious as the bias environment begins lapsing, or sooner. By the same token, not yet breaking lower before the final hour would become vulnerable to a weak-handed bounce into the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Sep 25, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two more Fed speakers start the new week. They’re more reliably influential to price action than are either of the two Fed surveys, neither of which has any track record for impacting the chart.
*William Dudley Speaks
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
12:40 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2502.00 | 2499.75 |
| …would target | 2507.00 | 2505.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2496.50 | 2494.50 |
| …would target | 2491.75 | 2489.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Down, but not yet out.
Not yet extending the suppressed open does keep door open for a bounce.
The open didn’t do anything bullish. It didn’t avoid 2495.50, it didn’t trend up through the open, and it didn’t recover positive territory. Nothing bullish, except delay extending down.
That delay invoked the grace period, since the 2498.00 bias-down signal was still being overlapped at 10:15. It was still being overlapped at 10:30, too, triggering noN-bias.
Not bias-down which would require holding 2498.00 as resistance. Not no-bias, which would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2505.00 bias-up signal. But noN-bias, with no bias influence.
Back above 2499.00 would start to suggest a morning rally underway, regardless of there being no other indication for it. Originating from an unstable base would doom it to failure. Otherwise, back under 2497.00 would target fresh session lows under 2495.50, and potentially an air pocket under 2490.00 and lower.