Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday night probed the 2487.00 intraday high by 4 points up to 2491.00. Tuesday’s gap up to its 2489.00 bias-up signal extended straight up briefly to 2493.50, and held up long enough to trigger bias-up. The balance of the morning dipped back down to test the 2489.00 bias-up signal as support.
Retesting the morning’s high up to 2494.00 also reacted down, albeit shallower before recovering again. A last-minute surge to fresh highs at 2494.75 characterized the session as trending. And the second consecutive higher close confirmed Monday’s breakout. At least an eventual third higher close is required.
Meanwhile, coming within 3 ticks of the morning’s 2495.50 bias-up target has neutralized its attraction above. Despite the target being neutralized, it was too late for a reaction down to actually reject the attraction above. That doesn’t prevent reacting down immediately Wednesday, but it does require a reaction down to be aggressive. Otherwise, the upward bias remains intact.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing overnight under the 1.1955-1.1970 pullback limit. It was still being tested Monday afternoon, if not recovered, and must hold to keep in-play 1.2030 and 1.2090.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Ending Monday while testing or piercing the 1337.50 sell signal extended down overnight to test 1327.00. Tuesday’s open had already recovered much, but only to test 1333.00-1334.00 as resistance intraday. A deeper pullback would target 1318.50 if not already rallying at Wednesday’s open.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping overnight held above Monday’s intraday lows while also holding another test of the 17.90 sell signal. First testing 17.60 as support would make a recovery more credible for extending back to the highs.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s minimum pullback objective under 156-00 still had potential for extending down to 155-16 or even to 155-04. Both were tested Tuesday, which would end the decline on a close back above 155.26.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging narrowly Monday around 48.00 instead of trending above it still hasn’t confirmed that the 47.25 pullback limit has held, or that the eventual third higher close required by last week’s confirmed breakout is back in-play.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s upward-biased inside day had held the 2.95 sell signal as resistance. But that didn’t prevent trending higher overnight from gapping up Tuesday to the 2.98 buy signal and extending higher intraday to test 3.02. Not extending the rally Wednesday would all but require testing 2.84 and probably lower.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Sep 13, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s pre-open PPI is high-profile, and reliable for influencing price action. The afternoon’s 30-year auction is high-profile, and reliable for at least inhibiting price action ahead of its results. Often, those bring a modest relief rally. This being expiration week, we’ll assess this month’s WedEX signal at the close.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Wednesday Expiration indicator
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2495.50 | 2493.00 |
| …would target | 2500.75 | 2498.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2488.75 | 2486.50 |
| …would target | 2484.00 | 2481.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Entrenched.
Bias-up triggers.
Overnight action had formed a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest, and often it is retested the same day. The pre-open pullback was as shallow as possible to still qualify as non-arbitrary. Rallying out of the open would be credible for being briefly productive.
And it was, both productive, and briefly. Touching the 2489.00 bias-up signal as support reacted up sharply to 2493.25 resistance. The 2495.50 bias-up target is in-play, with room up to 2500.00. Then its reaction down fell to 2488.50.
The reactions last stretch came after already triggering the 2489.00 bias-up signal at 10:15,. and it was too late to be invalidated. Back above 2491.75 would signal the rally had resumed