Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
THE ADOBE CHARTROOM ADD-ON LOADS VERY SIMPLY IN ONE CLICK, BUT PLEASE CONTACT ME IMMEDIATELY IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY DIFFICULTY
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2468.25 | 2465.75 |
| …would target | 2474.50 | 2472.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2458.25 | 2456.00 |
| …would target | 2453.00 | 2450.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
THE ADOBE CHARTROOM ADD-ON LOADS VERY SIMPLY IN ONE CLICK, BUT PLEASE CONTACT ME IMMEDIATELY IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY DIFFICULTY
[PROGRAMMING NOTE FOLLOW-UP: I will be available as usual on Monday. Didn’t even have to don my Star Wars costume or wink/sneer at the defendant.]
Will Friday’s pattern resolve the following night, as did Thursday’s? The pre-open threat of a morning collapse was avoided by trending up through 9:45. That even put into play a higher objective, which the morning nearly fulfilled. But spending the entire session in negative territory, and in the same range that is already distributive, doesn’t prevent breaking lower later.
But, how much later. Friday afternoon also avoided collapsing. It did trend down, probing fresh post-open lows through the proxy window. That’s too late to attract new strong-handed sponsorship, so not extending down actually reflects weak-handed optimism. Bearish.
We’ll review the bigger picture and likely scenarios for next week and their setups at this weekend’s Saturday Review. It starts at 9:30 ET, and I’ll email you its link in the morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing higher overnight attacked 1.2010 and retested last Tuesday’s overnight high. Reacting down through the morning maintained positive territory, albeit ineffectual optimism that suggests distribution has begun.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s rally probed higher overnight to attack 1362.50 but Friday’s open reversed it back down to fill the gap from Thursday’s close and to momentarily pierce negative territory. Not closing above Thursday’s high does undermine the upside momentum, but it’s bearish only if an intraday retest of Thursday night’s high were reversed back under Friday’s close.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs overnight weren’t maintained through Friday morning, which failed to exploit the opportunity to confirm Thursday’s breakout above a multi-session range. Reversing into negative territory was contained within Thursday’s range and above the 17.90 sell signal.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
New highs overnight up to 158-09 were retraced to open Friday under Thursday’s 157-30 high and to fluctuate intraday around unchanged. The 156-24 pullback limit is unchanged.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower overnight started trending down sharply after Friday’s 49.00 open. Consolidating at 48.25 resolved down again to attack 47.25. That all but neutralizes the “lower prior highs” and previously unfilled gap that was possible before fulfilling Tuesday’s confirmed breakout. There’s room for noise down to 47.10 or 46.95, but back above 47.95 would start to signal the corrective dip was done.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Reacting down overnight from the 3.02 buy signal extended through the 2.95 sell signal to attack its 2.84 target down to 2.88.
Mid-day Update… An anxious calm.
Still stuck in negative territory.
[PROGRAMMING NOTE #1: I haven’t heard of a single issue with Adobe’s chaRTroom update. Please let me know otherwise.]
[PROGRAMMING NOTE #2: There’s a chance of my being absent Monday. I’ll know for certain before tomorrow’s Saturday Review.]
The open didn’t trend down. It’s initial spike down to 2456.75 was recovered entirely back up to the 2459.25 open, which is also this morning’s bias-down signal. Holding its test had put into play an offsetting test of its 2466.00 bias-up signal, which was attacked to within 1 point at 2465.00.
Coming within 1 tick of coming within 3 ticks of the objective usually wouldn’t neutralize it. More so, overbought RSIs there require its eventual retest. This afternoon’s no-bias environment would be a good opportunity to accomplish that.
But remember than not trending down in the morning would be likely then only to tread water while being vulnerable to an afternoon collapse. That “unfinished business above” won’t be a deal killer if the bias environment is exited under a relevant level — like under 2459.25 — which could unleash the vulnerability to collapsing into the weekend.